Cracks Appear in the U.S. High-Yield Bond Market; Bankruptcies in Automotive-Related Companies May Weaken the Upward Momentum of U.S. Stocks

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, cracks have recently appeared in the U.S. high-yield bond market, with investors beginning to be wary of signs of rising credit risk. Two bankruptcy events related to automotive companies, the bankruptcy protection application by auto parts supplier First Brands, and the liquidation plan of used car loan institution Tricolor Holdings, have triggered turbulence in the private credit market and added new uncertainties to the high-risk corporate bond market. The market is concerned that this may weaken one of the important supports for the recent rise in U.S. stocks, which is that corporate financing costs have remained low for a long time. In the past, investors were willing to accept lower risk premiums (i.e., credit spreads) to lend to lower-rated companies, which was seen as a positive signal of robust corporate financial health and improved earnings quality. However, overly tight credit spreads also mean that some companies with fragile financial structures can issue bonds under more lenient terms, thereby increasing potential risks. Recently, amid financing related to artificial intelligence and the high valuations of indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, investor attention to the credit market has further increased. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated after the bank reported solid third-quarter results that the company incurred a loss of $170 million due to Tricolor, and this may only be the tip of the iceberg. Dimon warned during a conference call, "When you see one cockroach, it often means there are more." He also mentioned that First Brands is a similar risk case and revealed that there are several other similar incidents in the market. However, market confidence has not completely collapsed. A survey released by Bank of America this week showed that investors remain relatively optimistic about high-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds overall. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also believes that despite the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor, "the overall credit trend has not changed significantly." He pointed out that most private credit is similar to bank loans, stating, "Failures will always exist, especially in poorly managed or non-compliant accounting companies." However, Tracy Chen, an investment analyst at Brandywine Global, holds a more cautious view. She believes that looking at these bankruptcy cases individually can be seen as isolated incidents of lax lending scrutiny, but when viewed together, they may reflect rising pressure on subprime borrowers, even if the overall economy remains stable. She advises investors to closely monitor four key indicators: the performance of private equity stocks, the trends of U.S. regional bank stocks, changes in high-yield bond spreads, and the risk pricing in the auto and credit card loan markets. "Currently, private equity stocks have significantly underperformed the market, regional bank stocks have slightly declined, while the other two indicators remain relatively stable," Chen pointed out, "but if these four areas deteriorate simultaneously, it would indicate that localized pressure could evolve into systemic risk."