Guotai Junan Securities: Maintains JD.com-SW "Outperform" rating, new delivery business UE continues to improve

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that it maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group-SW (09618). The company's new takeaway business investment is moderate, and the efficiency of its core e-commerce operations continues to improve. The firm has adjusted its revenue forecasts for the company for 2025-2027 to CNY 1,334.8 billion / 1,419.7 billion / 1,488.2 billion, and adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 29.8 billion / 40.8 billion / 56.7 billion, with adjustments of +2.2% / +1.7% / +1.2%. The firm indicated that the company's revenue performance in the third quarter is impressive, expected to grow by 13% year-on-year: On the revenue side, the firm expects JD Group to achieve revenue of CNY 293.9 billion in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 13%, mainly due to national subsidies driving rapid growth in JD Retail's revenue (Q3 24/ Q2 25 revenue year-on-year +5% / +22%). JD Retail's revenue growth is expected to be +11%, with high single-digit growth in powered categories and double-digit growth in daily necessities; the takeaway business volume has increased compared to Q2, mainly driven by seasonal factors. The expected revenue growth rates for JD Retail / JD Logistics / new business in Q3 are +11% / +20% / +230%, respectively. In terms of operational performance, the firm expects JD's Q3 GMV growth to be around 15% (the online retail market in July-August grew by 12.9% year-on-year), with market share continuing to recover, mainly driven by the replacement of old products in powered categories. On the user side, the number of active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce has maintained strong growth, benefiting mainly from national subsidies and the new takeaway business. Among the first batch of new takeaway users acquired in March-April this year, 40% had converted to main site users by July. On the profit side, the company is expected to have a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.4% in Q3 2025. JD Retail's operating profit margin has increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved supply chain efficiency leading to higher gross margins and rapid growth in commission advertising revenue causing structural adjustments; the new takeaway business that started this year has shown continuous improvement in user experience, mainly benefiting from the company's decision not to follow competitors in large-scale user subsidies in Q3, with the proportion of main meals steadily increasing. Additionally, improvements in delivery efficiency and more precise subsidies have also contributed to the enhancement of user experience