Morning Trend | CHINA RISUN GP (1907.HK) Death Cross on October 16, Weak Wait-and-See Atmosphere Clearly Observed
CHINA RISUN GP (1907.HK) exhibited significant downward pressure at yesterday's close, with a "death cross" signal appearing on the daily chart, indicating that bearish sentiment is dominant in the short term. This death cross not only provides clearer bearish guidance for the market but also, combined with the stock price breaking below the 30-day moving average, further reinforces the weak technical characteristics. Reviewing the intraday performance, capital primarily flowed out, with buying sentiment remaining cautious, and overall trading volume increased compared to the previous period, indicating that some funds still chose to distribute shares in a weak market, while major institutions leaned towards defensive position adjustments. The divergence between buying and selling has widened, and market sentiment is cautious, with a noticeable decrease in right-side trading willingness during the day, leading to continuous adjustments in individual stocks. It is worth noting that the decline of CHINA RISUN GP is not an isolated event but is influenced by the overall pressure on cyclical industries. Looking back at the recent performance of the energy and chemical sector, affected by fluctuations in raw material prices, downstream demand has yet to show substantial recovery, weakening corporate profit elasticity. Last week, the National Energy Administration issued a notice regarding the resumption of coal mines, which briefly boosted market expectations for improvements in the supply-demand structure, but specific data has not shown a clear turning point in production and demand. Especially in the context of persistently weak macroeconomic data and sluggish end consumption, the overall rebound momentum of the cyclical sector is limited, and the pressure on RISUN's stock price is inevitable. On the technical side, HKD 3.40 has become a focal support level recently. The market is generally paying attention to the capital feedback and trading intensity at this price level
China Risun Group (1907.HK) exhibited significant downward pressure at yesterday's close, with a "death cross" signal appearing on the daily chart, indicating that bearish sentiment is dominant in the short term. This death cross not only provides clearer bearish guidance for the market but also coincides with the stock price breaking below the 30-day moving average, further reinforcing the technical weakness. Reviewing the intraday performance, funds primarily flowed out, with buying sentiment remaining cautious; overall trading volume increased compared to the previous period, indicating that some funds still chose to distribute shares in a weak market, while major institutions leaned towards defensive position adjustments. The divergence between buying and selling has widened, market sentiment is cautious, and the willingness for right-side trading has significantly decreased, leading to continuous adjustments in individual stocks.
It is worth noting that the decline of China Risun Group is not an isolated event but is influenced by the overall pressure on cyclical industries. Looking back at the recent performance of the energy and chemical sector, downstream demand has yet to show substantial recovery due to fluctuations in raw material prices, weakening corporate profit elasticity. Last week, the National Energy Administration issued a notice regarding the resumption of coal mines, which briefly boosted market expectations for an improvement in the supply-demand structure. However, on the data front, production and demand have not shown a clear turning point. Especially in the context of persistently weak macroeconomic data and sluggish terminal consumption, the overall rebound momentum of the cyclical sector is limited, and the pressure on Risun Group's stock price is inevitable.
From a technical perspective, HKD 3.40 has become a focal support level recently. The market is paying close attention to the capital feedback and trading intensity at this price level. If this level fails to stabilize or if funds continue to flow out, a new round of downward movement in the short term cannot be ruled out, with stability trending negatively, and there is a risk of a rapid volume spike and sell-off during the session. Relatively speaking, there have been no unexpected positive news releases regarding the company's fundamentals, and short-term fund operations are mainly focused on oversold rebounds or buying on dips, with significantly insufficient motivation to chase higher prices. In the actual market, the mainstream strategy of right-side traders emphasizes remaining in cash or making small, tentative additions, with limited participation from bottom-fishing funds.
Overall, the current market for Risun Group is actively bearish, with moving averages not yet converging or stabilizing, and market trading enthusiasm has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the month. For right-side traders, it is essential to closely monitor marginal policy changes and sudden news in the coal and upstream raw materials sectors. If abnormal capital inflows occur during the session, it may briefly improve the supply-demand relationship and provide some support for the weak market; however, to determine whether the market has truly reversed, there needs to be a synchronous alignment of fundamentals and industry data.
At this stage, volatility has significantly increased, with frequent short-term fluctuations, and risk exposure should be dynamically adjusted to avoid blindly bottom-fishing or chasing higher prices. Strategically, it is advisable to maintain a high level of vigilance, focusing on new catalysts in the news and changes in downstream demand, while being wary of the risk of a second sell-off. Based on the overall market and industry logic, it is judged that the short-term weakness of China Risun Group remains unchanged, and whether it can usher in an effective rebound in the future will require observation of the cumulative effects of various industry and macro variables
