Guangfa Securities: Civil aviation demand is stable, and the recovery of international routes is accelerating

According to the report released by GF Securities, based on data from Flight Butler, during the summer transportation period of 2025, the national civil aviation flight volume will reach 1.054 million flights, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Among these, domestic flights will increase by 2.0% and international flights by 13.2%, with passenger transport volume reaching 147 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. During the National Day holiday, nationwide cross-regional travel reached 2.432 billion person-times, with civil aviation passenger transport volume approximately 19.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; the total number of flights was 135,000, an increase of 3.3%, up 15.1% compared to 2019. Overall, the summer transportation and National Day peak seasons are driving a continuous recovery in air travel demand, benefiting from visa-free policies, with a strong recovery in international routes and notable resilience in East China and South China airports.

GF Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

The production recovery at major airports is good, and the optimization of passenger flow structure is steadily advancing

From January to August 2025, the cumulative production data of major listed airports steadily rebounded, with the number of takeoffs and landings at Pudong Airport/Baiyun Airport/Shenzhen Airport/Capital Airport increasing by 5.0%/7.0%/5.6%/2.3% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of passenger throughput, benefiting from airlines exchanging price for volume and stable demand, the passenger load factor of major airlines has significantly improved year-on-year, coupled with a substantial acceleration in the recovery of international flights, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger flow at major listed airports has outpaced that of flight volume. From January to August 2025, the overall passenger throughput at Pudong/Baiyun/Shenzhen/Capital Airports increased by 10.0%/8.2%/8.8%/3.9% year-on-year, respectively.

The dual peak seasons of summer transportation and National Day drive a continuous recovery in air travel, and airport operations maintain a high growth momentum

According to Flight Butler, during the summer transportation period of 2025, the national civil aviation flight volume will reach 1.054 million flights, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Among these, domestic flights will increase by 2.0% and international flights by 13.2%, with passenger transport volume reaching 147 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among major listed airports, Baiyun Airport had the highest flight volume increase of 8.0%, while Pudong/Hongqiao/Capital/Shenzhen Airports increased by 2.7%/2.5%/1.8%/0.4%, respectively. During the National Day holiday, nationwide cross-regional travel reached 2.432 billion person-times, with civil aviation passenger transport volume approximately 19.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; the total number of flights was 135,000, an increase of 3.3%, up 15.1% compared to 2019. Pudong Airport had the highest year-on-year flight volume increase of 6.4%, followed by Baiyun/Hongqiao/Capital/Shenzhen with increases of 4.7%/4.7%/3.7%/2.9%, respectively.

Overall, the summer transportation and National Day peak seasons are driving a continuous recovery in air travel demand, benefiting from visa-free policies, with a strong recovery in international routes and notable resilience in East China and South China airports. According to the Civil Aviation Administration's announcement on promoting the construction of international aviation hubs, leading airports are expected to maintain steady growth under the expansion of air rights and the enhancement of transfer capabilities, focusing on "strengthening the comprehensive functions of international aviation hubs in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, etc., and creating a number of international aviation hubs and regional aviation hubs targeting specific areas."

The time structure of the winter-spring flight season shows significant differentiation, with leading airports continuing to recover while medium-sized airports tighten capacity In the winter-spring flight season of 2025, the total flight schedule of national civil aviation decreased by 1.16% year-on-year and 3.16% month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in overall capacity. Among them, airports with over ten million passengers performed relatively steadily, with domestic and international schedules increasing by 6.18% and 7.07% year-on-year, respectively, showing that core hub route resources continue to concentrate in large airports. In contrast, the schedule resources of medium-sized airports significantly tightened both year-on-year and month-on-month, reflecting a trend of capacity optimization and structural adjustment.

Overall, the international schedule of national airports still grew by 1.38% year-on-year, reflecting the continued momentum of international route recovery. Among listed airports, Baiyun and Shenzhen airports saw a slight tightening in both domestic and international schedules; Pudong and Hongqiao airports maintained growth in international schedules, with a slight decline in domestic schedules; Capital Airport showed a mixed pattern with a slight increase in domestic schedules and a tightening of international schedules, reflecting the differentiated layout of regional routes and recovery pace.

Investment Suggestions

Air travel continues to rebound, and the recovery of international routes is accelerating, with the industry's prosperity steadily improving. Major airports have sufficient ground capacity, and under the push to "build international hub airports," the structure is expected to continue to improve, with profit elasticity gradually recovering. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Airport (000089.SZ) and Shanghai Airport (600009.SH), which have a high proportion of international routes and possess transfer potential and regional passenger flow expansion.

Risk Warning

The recovery of international routes may be less than expected; macroeconomic fluctuations; cost fluctuations such as oil prices and exchange rates; policy changes; and the recovery progress of non-aeronautical businesses at airports may be lower than expected