<div id="readability-page-1"> <h3>The Spookiest Month of the Year</h3> October is statistically the most volatile month for stocks, with a track record of sharp fluctuations dating back to the late 1800s. So far, it's living up to its name. Last week's trading was notably volatile, although it started off on a positive note as the U.S. and China appeared to walk back some of the prior trade escalation and Fed officials provided dovish comments, supporting rate-cut outlook. Several large AI deals – including strategic investments and cloud infrastructure contracts – boosted sentiment in technology stocks, supporting the broader rally early in the week. Earnings season also began in earnest, with the largest U.S. banks' better-than-expected results contributing to market gains. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to indicate that the central bank remains on track to cut short-term interest rates again at its next meeting, noting that the &#34;downside risks to employment&#34; have shifted the balance of risks in the economy. On Wednesday, the Fed also released its Beige Book – a wide-scale report on economic conditions – which showed that economic activity was little changed since the previous report, reflecting a mixed picture across districts. While employment levels held steady and wages rose, consumer spending weakened, prices continued climbing, and more employers signaled layoff plans. Thursday saw stocks give back gains after two large regional banks disclosed problems with loans, fueling investor concerns about rising risks in the credit market and the broader health of the regional banking industry. However, stocks clawed back from their losses after several other regional banks reported solid results, easing investor fears. News that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak with his Chinese counterpart on trade, coupled with President Trump's comments that the high tariffs on China wouldn't be sustainable, helped ease the mood on Friday, giving stocks a boost. <h3>Roaches Under the Hood</h3> The largest banks' earnings were robust, with the diversified lenders raking it in through multiple business lines. However, regional banks are another story – and big losses for Zions Bancorporation (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) transformed into concerns about credit quality, fraud, and broader economic concerns. These banks disclosed loan problems right after two high-profile auto-sector bankruptcies – Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group – rattled investor nerves. While neither of the banks was exposed to the failing firms – with their losses stemming mostly from commercial real estate – their revelations of CRE losses amplified investor anxiety about broader credit risk in the regional banking sector, with questions arising whether a systemic crisis is brewing under the hood of the financial system. JPMorgan's (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon added fuel to the fire with his now-famous warning that &#34;when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.&#34; JPMorgan Chase had direct exposure to Tricolor Holdings and took a $170 million charge-off in Q3, which is why its CEO talked about the subject on the bank's earnings call. Dimon, widely regarded as &#34;the best banker in the world,&#34; warned that recent bankruptcies could signal deeper credit trouble beneath the surface, urging investors to be vigilant about hidden credit risks in the economy. JPMorgan Chase avoided direct losses from First Brands but closely monitored the situation because of the widespread lender exposure.​ Several lenders, including Jefferies (JEF), UBS (UBS), and Fifth Third (FITB), reported hundreds of millions in exposure to First Brands' off-balance sheet loans and alleged irregularities in invoicing and receivables booking. The fallout has also intensified scrutiny on private credit funds and business development companies (BDCs), with some of them holding substantial First Brands-related debt. The flashbacks to the 2023 regional banking crisis weighed heavily on investor sentiment. However, the panic eased after statements from banks and analysts clarified that the incidents were isolated rather than systemic. Raymond James (RJF) called Zions' issue a &#34;one-off credit hiccup&#34; and not a sector-wide credit event. Argus Research said it views corporate bankruptcies as isolated cases, noting that the latest bank earnings reports highlighted &#34;overall improving credit quality&#34; last quarter. Meanwhile, Both Zions and Western Alliance reaffirmed financial guidance and highlighted limited exposure to the disputed loans. Moreover, Ally Financial (ALLY), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and Regions Financial (RF) all easily topped analysts' earnings and revenue estimates, helping lift investor sentiment toward regional banks – and rekindling a broad-market rally going into the weekend. <h2>Stocks That Made the News</h2> ▣ Oracle (ORCL) tumbled on Friday, reversing the previous day's rally. On Thursday, the cloud infrastructure company announced a solid financial outlook and stated that its AI cloud server-rental business would have a gross margin in the range of 30% to 40% by 2030, addressing earlier concerns about lower profitability. ORCL also hiked its OCI revenue outlook for 2030 to $166 billion from the already ambitious $144 billion guidance given in its recent earnings report, with the new target implying a CAGR of 75% over five years. The company said that its RPO now exceed $500 billion as customer demand outstrips supply. The tech giant continued to receive extensive analyst support with multiple price target upgrades over the past few days alone. However, the stock experienced its worst day in half a year on Friday, as traders apparently sold the news amid lingering questions about near-term margins and capex outlook. Oracle's shares are up over 75% for the year as the company has emerged as a key player in the AI cloud space, forging multi-billion deals with hyperscalers and industry leaders and becoming a founding partner in the world's largest AI data center project, Stargate. ▣ Alphabet (GOOGL) was the top-performing megacap stock last week, lifted 3.7% by strong investor confidence driven by AI-related business momentum and strong fundamentals, and supported by ongoing analyst price target upgrades. The company's Google division said it's planning to release the latest version of its flagship AI model, Gemini 3.0, as soon as December. According to media reports, the model will be significantly upgraded, which is expected to boost it to the top of the leaderboards. Meanwhile, sources say that a team of Google developers is working to integrate Gemini into Apple's (AAPL) operating systems. Alphabet is one of the strongest-conviction holdings in the TipRanks Smart Investor Portfolio, delivering a gain of 49% since July 31, 2024 – roughly double that of the S&amp;P 500. ▣ Meta Platforms (META) has struck a $30 billion deal with asset management company Blue Owl Capital to finance its Hyperion data center in Louisiana. Under the deal, Blue Owl and Meta would co-own the site, with Meta retaining a 20% stake in the project and PIMCO providing a part of the financing in its role as an anchor lender. The Hyperion development – currently under construction and expected to be completed in 2029 – will be one of the largest data centers in the world, housing around 2 million GPUs and eventually scaling to over 5 gigawatts. ▣ American Express (AXP) skyrocketed to an all-time high after the company's Q3 report revealed record revenue, a surge in net income, better-than-expected earnings, and solid credit metrics. This strong financial showing was driven by robust card member spending, along with growth in premiums and transaction volumes across consumer, commercial, and international segments. The company's premium card strategy and expanding merchant network contributed notably to the revenue gains. AXP raised its full-year revenue and EPS 2025 guidance, with both targets now above analyst consensus. ▣ Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) plummeted last week after President Trump outlined plans to negotiate for lower prices for GLP-1 diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Novo's Ozempic and Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro. Stocks fell as investors weighed potential revenue erosion for the blockbuster medicines, which currently carry price-tags reaching $1,000 for a month's supply. ▣ Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, aka TSMC (TSM) unveiled the first U.S.-made wafer for Nvidia's advanced Blackwell AI chips, produced at TSMC's Arizona facility. This marks a historic milestone as it's the first time such a critical and advanced chip for AI applications has been manufactured domestically – a significant move toward reducing reliance on foreign supply chains in the strategically crucial semiconductor industry. The announcement arrived shortly after TSMC reported its Q3 2025 results, beating analyst consensus on revenue and EPS by a wide margin. The world's leading chip foundry posted a record 39% jump in third-quarter earnings, driven by strong demand for AI and 5G chips. The company also lifted its 2025 revenue growth outlook to the mid-30% range from around 30%, and reaffirmed capital spending of up to $42 billion for the year. The quarter marked TSMC's sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth and a record high in net income, reflecting its dominant role as the leading manufacturer of AI chips globally. The stock has made the TipRanks Smart Investor Portfolio subscribers a gain of 215% since August 23, 2023 (versus 65% for the S&amp;P 500). <h2>Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements</h2> The Q3 earnings season is now in full swing, with many notable releases scheduled for the coming week. All eyes this week will be on the quarterly release of Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday – the first &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock to report this season. In addition, investors will follow the reports of Netflix (NFLX), Coca-Cola (KO), GE Aerospace (GE), General Motors (GM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Philip Morris (PM), RTX (RTX), Halliburton (HAL), International Business Machines (IBM), Thermo Fisher (TMO), AT&amp;T (T), Lam Research (LRCX), Intel (INTC), Blackstone Group (BX), Procter &amp; Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), General Dynamics (GD), and many others. Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for Owens Corning (OC), Dell Technologies (DELL), Clorox (CLX), CVS Health (CVS), Albertsons Companies (ACI), and other dividend-paying firms. For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro &amp; Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.</div>

October is historically the most volatile month for stocks, and recent trading has confirmed this trend. Positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations and dovish comments from Fed officials initially boosted the market. However, concerns arose from regional banks disclosing loan issues, raising fears about credit quality. Despite this, strong earnings from major banks and reassurances from analysts helped stabilize investor sentiment. Notably, JPMorgan's CEO warned of potential hidden credit risks, while other banks reported solid results, contributing to a market rally as the week ended.

The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, October 19, 2025