CICC: Recent risk events at two U.S. banks do not currently pose a systemic shock to the financial system

CICC pointed out that on the evening of October 16, the stock prices of two regional banks in the United States, Zions Bank and Western Alliance, fell by 13% and 11% respectively, mainly due to the disclosure of loan losses by both banks. The market is concerned about whether the asset quality issues of banks arising from the previous loose credit conditions and the risks of private credit are widespread and whether they will trigger greater systemic financial risks. CICC believes that the risks of these two banks in this round are smaller in scale and severity compared to the previous round, and are more a result of emotional fermentation from localized individual credit risk events, which do not currently constitute a systemic shock to the financial system. However, this incident reflects the trend of rising credit risk in a high-interest-rate environment, and if it leads to a decline in risk appetite in the credit market and tightening of loan conditions, it may result in further liquidity tightening. However, before clear signs of recession appear in the overall U.S. economy, credit tightening may be relatively mild and unlikely to form a "crisis" situation