Tianfeng Securities: The sales during the Double Festival meet expectations, and the sentiment in the liquor sector may be expected to recover

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that the market atmosphere during the "Double Festival" is relatively flat, and the traditional "peak season effect" has significantly weakened. In terms of sales and wholesale prices, as the Double Festival approaches, terminal sales in September have shown a mild month-on-month recovery but remain under pressure; wholesale prices have declined year-on-year, and channel profits are narrowing. Regarding channel inventory, due to poor sales in Q2 2025, dealers may see an increase in inventory month-on-month; after stocking up before the festival, inventory has temporarily increased, and while there may be slight destocking during the peak season of the Double Festival, it is expected that the inventory of real estate liquor dealers will still be high. The report is optimistic about the upward elasticity performance of the sector during the Q3 earnings disclosure phase (risks may be fully released) and suggests paying attention to the bottom of the sector cycle.

The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Market atmosphere is flat, sales meet expectations

According to news from Yunjiu Toutiao, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, it is expected that the overall sales of liquor will decline by 20%-30%, which aligns with the pre-festival expectations of being subdued. Affected by the "liquor ban" in May this year, the consumption scenarios for government and business liquor have been significantly pressured, and the catering consumption market has been impacted. The market atmosphere during the "Double Festival" is relatively flat, and the traditional "peak season effect" has significantly weakened. In terms of sales and wholesale prices, as the Double Festival approaches, terminal sales in September have shown a mild month-on-month recovery but remain under pressure; wholesale prices have declined year-on-year, and channel profits are narrowing.

Regarding channel inventory, due to poor sales in Q2 2025, dealers may see an increase in inventory month-on-month; after stocking up before the festival, inventory has temporarily increased, and while there may be slight destocking during the peak season of the Double Festival, it is expected that the inventory of real estate liquor dealers will still be high. In terms of payment willingness, dealers are under significant financial pressure, and their payment collection is relatively cautious, with the payment willingness of various liquor companies generally slowing down in the third quarter.

Sales differentiation among provinces, banquet scenarios relatively resilient

The market shows characteristics of "overall pressure, regional differentiation," with high-end famous liquors and regional leaders demonstrating resilience, while the mass price segment performs relatively steadily.

Jiangsu Market: Sales are relatively stable, but there is significant urban-rural differentiation. Urban banquet scenarios are nearly flat, with the King's Luck series (Dui Kai, Si Kai) dominating the banquet market; consumption capacity in rural markets is weak, leading to a decline in sales.

Henan Market: Due to changes in consumption concepts, there is still downward pressure on prices, with the hundred-yuan mass price segment becoming the new sales mainstay. Products like Moutai 1935, Xijiu Jiaocang 1988, and Guotai are performing steadily, supported by the banquet market and mass gatherings, but demand for business banquets is weak, and some consumption scenarios may show signs of downgrading.

Sichuan Market: Mid-range products show differentiated performance in Chengdu and county markets. Affected by weak business consumption, the demand for mid-range products in the Chengdu market is under pressure, with sales declining by about 50% year-on-year; in contrast, products in the 300-500 yuan price range perform relatively steadily in county markets, primarily featuring famous liquors like JianNan Chun and ShuiJingFang. These products, due to their high brand recognition and moderate prices, align with the consumption psychology of county consumers who "recognize brands and value practicality"; in terms of consumption scenarios, the county market focuses on banquets (such as weddings and graduation banquets) and local social interactions, heavily relying on decision-making within familiar social circles, making mid-range liquors easy to form consumption trends through recommendations from friends and word-of-mouth, thereby consolidating their market position Shandong Market: Regional differentiation is obvious. Tasting events, buy-gift activities, and other promotions have driven sales growth in Jinan, Weifang, and other areas; however, the atmosphere in Qingdao, Zibo, and Linyi is lukewarm, with a decrease in government and business scenarios. Overall, the consumption of liquor shows a trend of "rationalization," with rigid scenarios such as banquets and family gatherings remaining relatively stable, but business and government consumption continues to be weak, putting pressure on the mid-to-high-end price segment.

High-end liquor wholesale prices stabilize and rebound, strong brand liquor companies outperform.

During the Double Festival period, the performance of liquor at various price levels shows significant differentiation, with national famous liquors maintaining a solid base, but price pressure is generally present. Demand for high-end famous liquors has declined, revealing price pressure. Feitian Moutai experienced increased supply due to pre-festival stocking, leading to a temporary decline in wholesale prices; as the Double Festival approached, the company actively controlled prices, and after the decline in wholesale prices, its high cost-performance ratio became prominent, with wholesale prices gradually rising and stabilizing around 1760 yuan during the Double Festival; the wholesale prices of Wuliangye's Pu Wuliang and Guojiao 1573 also stabilized after a phase of decline.

Regional pattern differentiation, strong brand liquor companies outperform. The King's Luck Guo Yuan series has formed a strong brand barrier in the Jiangsu market due to its deep channel foundation and brand recognition, performing relatively well among regional local liquors. Jian Nan Chun holds an advantage in brand recognition in the banquet market of Sichuan counties. In contrast, most regional local brands face greater pressure, with market share continuously squeezed under the dual impact of the sinking of famous liquor channels and rational consumption.

The 100 yuan price segment becomes the main sales force, and cost-effective products are popular. In Henan, Shandong, and other regions, the sales proportion of the 100 yuan price segment has increased, with light bottle liquor and regional brands such as Jinhui and Binhai occupying the mass consumer market due to their high cost-performance ratio.

Investment Suggestions: With the disclosure of Q3 performance, risks may be fully released, and the sentiment in the liquor sector may be expected to recover.

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that from the trend of wholesale prices, before the festival, Moutai and Wuliangye supported prices through active intervention, and currently, the wholesale prices of Feitian, Baidai, and Guojiao have rebounded to around 1760 yuan, 850 yuan, and 850 yuan, respectively. They are optimistic about the upward elasticity performance of the sector during the Q3 performance disclosure phase (risks may be fully released) and suggest paying attention to the bottom of the sector cycle.

In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: Strong elastic targets when policy expectations are in play/high-low funding preferences: Jiu Gui Jiu (000799.SZ)/She De Jiu Ye (600702.SH)/Shui Jing Fang (600779.SH)/Lu Zhou Lao Jiao (000568.SZ)/Hua Zhi Jiu Hang (300755.SZ), etc.; Elastic targets brought by mass consumption recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu (000596.SZ)/Ying Jia Gong Jiu (603198.SH)/King's Luck (603369.SH), etc.; Strong α targets: Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH)/Shanxi Fen Jiu (600809.SH), etc.

Risk Warning

Terminal sales are below expectations; industry competition intensifies; macroeconomic recovery is below expectations