Standard Chartered has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong for the third and fourth quarters, adjusting the annual forecast to 2.8%. Exports in the last quarter may face pressure

Standard Chartered published a report, raising its forecast for Hong Kong's GDP growth in the third quarter of this year from an initial 2.2% year-on-year increase to 3.2%. The forecast for the last quarter was also raised from an initial 0.8% increase to 1.8%, mainly driven by better-than-expected exports and improved local sentiment since the second half of the year. The report mentioned that ongoing trade policy uncertainties and the diminishing effect of export grabbing pose risks to short-term growth. The bank has raised its full-year GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong from 2.2% to 2.8%.

Standard Chartered stated that hard data reflects improvements in Hong Kong's exports and retail. In the third quarter, exports maintained a strong performance, exceeding the bank's expectations. From July to August, merchandise exports increased by 14.4% year-on-year, sustaining a growth momentum of 14% year-on-year from the previous quarter. In the first eight months of this year, exports to mainland China and ASEAN countries increased by 16.4% and nearly 30%, respectively, mainly due to the impact of export grabbing, offsetting declines in exports to the EU and the US. The bank noted that starting in August, the effects of tariffs and export grabbing began to show signs of diminishing, which is expected to put pressure on exports in the last quarter. Seasonally adjusted, total exports from June to August decreased month-on-month compared to the previous value (May to July), marking the first decline this year.

Additionally, the report mentioned that Hong Kong's retail sales value rose for four consecutive months in August, increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest since November 2023; partly benefiting from base effects. Improved stock market sentiment and a more active property market have boosted consumer sentiment. The number of inbound travelers in the third quarter grew by 12% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supporting tourism-related industries.

At the same time, Standard Chartered noted that the latest unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%, the highest since September 2022, with varying performances across industries. Standard Chartered believes that the improvement in local sentiment is likely to reduce the pressure on lagging labor market indicators, maintaining overall labor market stability. The Policy Address mentioned that additional funding for infrastructure over the next two to three years is expected to support the local construction industry