Central and Eastern Europe Fund Manager Ye Peipei: Short-term trading in gold is crowded, and the long-term driving forces have not fundamentally changed

Regarding the current consolidation of gold, Ye Peipei, the manager of the China-Europe Resource Select Mixed Fund, stated that there is a short-term trading crowd with overly heated sentiment in gold, and a potential correction space of 10-15% is expected, similar to the market from April to August this year. From a medium to long-term perspective, the driving forces behind gold prices have not fundamentally changed, and we judge that the ceiling for gold prices is relatively high. Currently, the investable market value of gold accounts for significantly less than before the 1980s in the stock-bond portfolio, indicating that there is still room for rebalancing in dollar assets. As for when the driving factors for gold prices will reverse, Ye Peipei believes the key is to observe when dollar credit weakens. Reviewing the past 60 years, gold and dollar credit have generally shown an inverse relationship. Assuming that the U.S. economy can achieve a long-term strong recovery, leading to a balanced budget again, such as a deficit rate falling below 4%, then the bull market for gold prices may come to an end. Before that, she tends to believe that gold prices are still in a fluctuating upward channel