Morgan Stanley: Raises ASMPT target price to HKD 100, expects last quarter to record losses due to one-time restructuring expenses

Morgan Stanley released a research report predicting that ASMPT may record a loss in the third quarter due to one-time restructuring expenses, but it advises investors to focus on its long-term growth drivers, including CoWoS-L capacity expansion, the development of high-frequency memory in China, and progress in hybrid bonding. Morgan Stanley also pointed out that mainstream semiconductor demand is recovering, and the advanced packaging market continues to grow. It currently estimates that ASMPT's third-quarter order shipment ratio will remain above 1x, giving it an "Overweight" rating, raising the target price from HKD 80 to HKD 100, and adjusting the earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upward by 10% and 23%, respectively, while lowering the full-year earnings estimate for this year by 45%. The firm indicated that the median revenue guidance for ASMPT in the third quarter is USD 475 million, representing an 11% year-on-year increase. Morgan Stanley currently predicts that the company's revenue will meet the guidance but believes that it will incur approximately RMB 360 million in one-time restructuring expenses during the period, resulting in a net loss of about HKD 69 million. As for the fourth quarter, the firm predicts revenue could reach RMB 3.646 billion, expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, and it anticipates a quarterly turnaround to a net profit of about RMB 126 million, mainly driven by advanced packaging boosting semiconductor solutions revenue growth