Morgan Stanley expects the core CPI in September to rise 3.12% year-on-year, stating that the quality of subsequent data may deteriorate due to the government shutdown

Morgan Stanley expects that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. will rise by 0.32% month-on-month in September, reflecting that core goods inflation remains positive while service inflation has slightly eased. The bank predicts that the overall CPI will increase by 0.41% month-on-month and 3.10% year-on-year, noting that this may be the last accurate inflation data before the deterioration of data quality due to a potential government shutdown in the U.S