According to the Zhitong Finance APP, analyst Leo Nelissen stated that the current market may be witnessing one of the riskiest economic experiments in decades, which could open new windows of opportunity for investors. This judgment is based on a key background: the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 index is approaching 23 times, while the macroeconomy is showing increasingly obvious binary characteristics—the gap between asset holders and the proletariat continues to widen.
Real GDP growth is a typical case to observe this divergence. The GDP forecasting model constructed by the Atlanta Federal Reserve based on multiple monthly indicators shows that the expected real GDP growth rate is 3.9%, a figure that carries multiple positive implications.
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A growth rate close to 4% means the economy is expanding at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, and historically, any growth exceeding 3% is considered a positive signal.
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However, behind the high GDP growth lies structural hidden dangers. Analysis indicates that the artificial intelligence industry has become a core driving force, contributing about one-third to GDP growth just in the first half of this year. Excluding overseas investment factors, the influence of AI on the economy has reached an unprecedented level. But the problem is that growth in other sectors is weak, indicating that the dividends of the technological revolution are concentrated in a few tracks.
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This divergence is corroborated by several key surveys. Research data targeting corporate executives and purchasing managers show that while the current business climate has not fallen into pessimism, it is far below the cyclical peaks of 2017 and 2021. Since 2022, under the multiple pressures of high interest rates, sticky inflation, weak consumption, and tariff uncertainties, cyclical indicators such as manufacturing have continued to be under pressure.
The ISM Manufacturing Index, which is highly correlated with business sentiment, also illustrates the issue. This index has been oscillating downward since peaking in 2021, spending most of the time in contraction territory (below 50) since the fourth quarter of 2022. This divergence has split the economic landscape into two camps: winners benefiting from the long-term dividends of AI and losers focused on the core areas of the real economy (manufacturing, real estate, consumption, etc.).
Driving cyclical recovery has become the biggest challenge facing the Federal Reserve. With almost zero tolerance for error, policymakers are conducting a precarious economic experiment. Some analysts believe that the future recovery path may exhibit three characteristics:
First, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may prefer to maintain a &#34;high-pressure economy&#34; by stimulating nominal growth through activating the real estate market and improving credit conditions;
Second, regulatory easing is expected to boost key areas such as the housing market, data center construction, and the return of manufacturing;
In addition, as gigawatt-level projects are launched one after another, the wave of data center construction will generate significant trickle-down effects, benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain.
Capital expenditure data supports this trend. Morgan Stanley research shows that capital expenditures for hyperscale enterprise data centers will reach $480 billion between 2022 and 2024, and are expected to surge to $1.15 trillion from 2025 to 2027. By 2028, global data center investment could exceed $1.6 trillion, with most funds flowing into the chip and critical infrastructure sectors, creating a cash flow cycle that drives the entire industry chain.
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The latest statement from the Business Roundtable resonates with the above judgment. Cisco Chairman Chuck Robbins pointed out: &#34;The growth in capital expenditure plans indicates that CEOs are optimistic about tax policies. Modernizing the approval system will be key to unleashing investments in energy, transportation, and AI.&#34;
Although the recovery process is constrained by uncertainties such as tariff risks and geopolitical factors, a gradual improvement trend has already been established.
Investment Path Under Risk Accumulation
The risks of this experiment should not be underestimated. The market generally bets on a rate-cutting cycle, but the Federal Reserve maintains a tough stance in the face of sticky inflation. After excluding outliers, core inflation indicators remain about 100 basis points above policy targets, and new price increase factors are showing momentum.
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley warned that the reality of five consecutive years of inflation exceeding targets could unanchor long-term expectations.
Policymakers face a dilemma: if they stimulate growth by tolerating higher inflation without reaching targets, it could lead to stagflation; while the baseline scenario is increasing consumer pressure, forcing the central bank to tighten monetary policy again. Both scenarios pose significant threats to a highly valued market.
In this context, analyst Leo Nelissen suggests positioning in the energy sector, particularly in the natural gas supply chain driven by AI electricity demand and LNG exports; and capturing the spillover effects of data center construction through segments such as hardware services and land resources.
Meanwhile, physical assets like gold and high-quality dividend stocks should still be considered as foundational allocations. Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that compared to tech giants mired in homogeneous competition and facing trillion-dollar investment return uncertainties, those leading segments with pricing power and long-term tailwinds may offer more allocation value.
Future Market Risks
Analyst Leo Nelissen states that investors should pay attention to current economic changes and the actions of the Federal Reserve and the government, including the associated risks. Focus should be on inflation, quality assets, and the risks and opportunities brought by AI disruption
Investors are likely in an environment of &#34;persistently high&#34; inflation, while institutions like the Federal Reserve are forced to take stimulus measures to avoid the risk of runaway inflation.
This is both important and full of risks. However, if deregulation and other government policies can boost confidence and improve business sentiment, this goal can still be achieved

.SPX

Analyst Leo Nelissen pointed out that the current market is undergoing the highest economic experiment in decades, which may bring new opportunities for investors. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is close to 23 times, and the macroeconomy is showing a binary divergence, widening the gap between asset holders and the proletariat. Although the expected real GDP growth rate reaches 3.9%, indicating economic expansion, the growth of the AI industry is concentrated in a few areas, while other sectors are experiencing weak growth. The pressure on cyclical indicators such as manufacturing makes driving cyclical recovery the biggest challenge for the Federal Reserve

- Analyst Leo Nelissen suggests that the market may be experiencing one of the highest-risk economic experiments in decades, potentially opening new opportunities for investors.  
- The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is nearing 23, with a notable economic divide between asset holders and the working class, as evidenced by a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9%.  
- Despite the positive growth driven by the AI sector, structural risks remain, and the Federal Reserve faces challenges in navigating inflation and economic recovery amidst uncertainties.

The Federal Reserve's Dangerous Experiment: A High-Risk Golden Opportunity Set for Investors?