<div id="readability-page-1"><div><ul> <li>Earlier this week, Meritage Homes announced it will report third-quarter results on Tuesday, with analysts projecting a 7.6% year-over-year decline in revenue to US$1.47 billion and a continuation of recent slower growth trends.</li> <li>An interesting aspect is that Meritage Homes has managed to exceed Wall Street’s revenue expectations for eight straight quarters, consistently outperforming even with overall declines in revenue.</li> <li>We'll examine how Meritage Homes’ consistent outperformance of revenue estimates ahead of Q3 earnings may influence its broader investment narrative.</li> </ul><p>We've found 17 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.</p><h2>Meritage Homes Investment Narrative Recap</h2><p>Being a Meritage Homes shareholder today means believing in the company’s ability to expand community count and maintain a leading position in affordable, move-in-ready homes, despite ongoing affordability challenges and market headwinds. The latest news of a projected 7.6% year-over-year revenue decline underscores persistent demand-related pressures, but, for now, this does not materially alter the near-term catalyst of community growth or the immediate risk around shrinking gross margins from continued pricing incentives.</p> <p>One of the most relevant recent announcements is the Board's August 2025 increase of Meritage’s share buyback plan by US$500 million to a total of US$1.25 billion. This move reinforces the capital allocation story that supports Meritage’s investment case and mitigates short-term pressures on share price, particularly as margin and backlog risks remain elevated.</p> <p>In contrast, investors should also be mindful of the potential for sudden market demand shifts, especially given …</p> <p>Read the full narrative on Meritage Homes (it's free!)</p><p>Meritage Homes is projected to reach $7.1 billion in revenue and $549.0 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes a 4.8% annual revenue growth rate but reflects a decrease of $89.3 million in earnings from the current $638.3 million.</p><p>Uncover how Meritage Homes' forecasts yield a $83.88 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.</p><h2>Exploring Other Perspectives</h2><figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/2da0825e-db83-485c-89c0-495a7a637d9e/chart/community-fair-value?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/2da0825e-db83-485c-89c0-495a7a637d9e/chart/community-fair-value"/><figcaption>MTH Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025</figcaption></figure> <p>Fair value estimates from four members of the Simply Wall St Community span from US$29.25 to US$225 per share, showcasing dramatic divergence in outlook. While current consensus highlights margin compression as a central risk, opinions in the market are far from settled, so you’ll want to consider these varied viewpoints.</p><p>Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Meritage Homes - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!</p><h2>Build Your Own Meritage Homes Narrative</h2><p>Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.</p><ul><li>A great starting point for your Meritage Homes research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.</li><li>Our free Meritage Homes research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Meritage Homes' overall financial health at a glance.</li></ul><h2>Curious About Other Options?</h2><p>The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:</p><ul><li>This technology could replace computers: discover 28 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.</li><li>The end of cancer? These 27 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.</li><li>Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.</li></ul> <p><em> This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data     and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your     financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.     Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.     Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p></div></div>

<p>Meritage Homes is set to report its third-quarter results, with analysts predicting a 7.6% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.47 billion. Despite consistently beating revenue expectations for eight quarters, the company faces ongoing growth pressures and margin risks. The Board's recent increase of the share buyback plan to $1.25 billion supports its investment narrative. Projections indicate Meritage could reach $7.1 billion in revenue by 2028, with a fair value estimate of $83.88, suggesting a 17% upside from its current price. Market opinions on the stock's value vary significantly.</p>

Is Meritage Homes' (MTH) Streak of Beating Estimates Masking Deeper Growth Pressure?