Goldman Sachs lowers Anta's target price to 115 yuan, third-quarter performance weak and in line with expectations

Goldman Sachs published a report indicating that ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK) had weak performance in the third quarter, in line with the market's already lowered expectations and the more conservative statements from peers. Although niche brands performed steadily, the Fila brand was affected by the warm winter weather, achieving only low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the full-year revenue target remains in the mid-single digits; ANTA's main brand saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in the third quarter, underperforming expectations, and with weak sales momentum so far in the fourth quarter, the company has once again lowered its full-year revenue guidance from mid-single digits to low single digits.

On a positive note, the company continues to demonstrate strict cost control capabilities and is confident that the ANTA and Fila brands can achieve operating profit margins of 20-25% and 25%, respectively.

Goldman Sachs maintains a positive view on ANTA's long-term growth prospects, believing that its multi-brand platform advantages and strong cost control capabilities are sufficient to support this; it has lowered its earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3 to 4%, reflecting a slowdown in growth for the ANTA and Fila brands. The target price has been reduced from 121 yuan to 115 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" (Conviction Buy List) rating