Tianfeng Securities: Copper mine supply growth slows down, copper prices support the profitability of copper mining companies

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that in 2025, the significant reduction in TC benchmark will loosen mining costs, leading to a notable increase in copper prices. The profits from copper mines may continue to maintain a high level of 60% since 2024; however, the growth rate of copper mine supply is contrary to this trend and is turning downward. In recent years, many copper mining companies in China have extended their operations to resource-rich regions such as Africa and South America. Under pressures such as high costs and resource protectionism, they have increased reserves through mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures. Additionally, supporting infrastructure construction is continuously making progress, further enhancing production and transportation efficiency to achieve the goal of reducing long-term costs.

The main viewpoints of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Decline in copper mine supply growth in 2025

According to the Q2 financial reports and updates from mining companies, the production of copper mines in 2025 is expected to balance out, with an overall growth rate of approximately -0.12%. The growth rate of copper mine supply has been revised downwards compared to the beginning of the year and is declining compared to the growth rate in 2024. In 2025, the significant reduction in TC benchmark will loosen mining costs, leading to a notable increase in copper prices. The profits from copper mines may continue to maintain a high level of 60% since 2024; however, the growth rate of copper mine supply is contrary to this trend and is turning downward.

Cautious new expansions + high production costs support high global copper mine disruption rates, long-term growth may not be optimistic, considering disruption rates, growth in 2026 may be around 2%

During the defensive capital expenditure phase, new expansion projects for copper mines are already limited, and construction progress often falls short of expectations due to large initial investments and human factors such as resource protection. After 2020, the high production costs of copper mines have highlighted the vulnerability of high-cost mines, which may reduce or halt production during periods of high price volatility. Copper prices lead the copper mine cycle by about one year. The high profit pattern in 2024-2025 should support an increase in copper mine output in 2025-2026, but under the backdrop of high disruption rates, growth may not be optimistic. Frequent supply shortfalls may provide long-term support for prices, while the inability to smoothly transmit to supply expansion will further solidify the relative price bottom.

Copper prices support the profitability of copper mining companies, focus on resource targets with expanding territories

China's copper reserves account for only 4% of the global total, but its production accounts for 8%, indicating an imbalance in extraction and reserves and a scarcity of resources. Companies urgently need to expand their territories in resource-rich countries. In recent years, many copper mining companies in China have extended their operations to resource-rich regions such as Africa and South America. Under pressures such as high costs and resource protectionism, they have increased reserves through mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures. Additionally, supporting infrastructure construction is continuously making progress, further enhancing production and transportation efficiency to achieve the goal of reducing long-term costs.

Targets

It is recommended to pay attention to: Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Minmetals Resources (01208), CMOC (603993.SH), Jincheng Mining (603979.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), etc.

Risk Warning

Sample selection risk, subjective judgment risk, operational risks caused by China-U.S. trade friction, risks of company expansion falling short of expectations, risks of downstream demand falling short of expectations, fitting calculation risks