CITIC Securities: China enters the accelerated networking period of satellite internet, focusing on new opportunities in the satellite manufacturing sector

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that China has planned the launch of over 25,000 satellites through network plans such as the GW constellation and the Qianfan constellation. As commercial space is a key direction for the country to cultivate new productive forces, after several years of preparation and nurturing, it has gradually entered a rapid networking period. In terms of cost reduction trends, the United States started satellite development earlier, and the scaling progress of satellite platforms is faster than that of China. Therefore, the cost proportion of satellite platforms is relatively low. Once China forms large-scale production in the future, it is expected to reduce the cost value ratio of satellite platforms to a smaller range, thereby concentrating the main manufacturing costs on payloads. At the same time, under the scale demand for low Earth orbit communication satellites, key components and high-value segments in the satellite manufacturing field will gain new opportunities.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

In the context of competition for space resources, China has entered a period of accelerated satellite internet networking

As a high ground for technological competition, space resources have made China and the United States the only two competitive countries under the "first come, first served" game rule. According to payload statistics, there are 15,621 satellites in orbit globally, of which the United States has 10,490, accounting for about two-thirds of the global total, Russia has 1,577, and China has 951. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, operates Starlink, which is currently the world's largest satellite networking company. By October 2025, the number of satellites in orbit is expected to exceed 10,000, completing a closed-loop business model and achieving positive operations for the company.

As an industry characterized by high technology, heavy capital, and large application scenarios, satellite internet will primarily see competition in the future between China and the United States, driven by national R&D strength, economic scale, and market demand. China has planned the launch of over 25,000 satellites through network plans such as the GW constellation and the Qianfan constellation, and commercial space has gradually entered a rapid networking period after several years of preparation and nurturing.

Low Earth orbit communication satellites will become the trend of future satellite internet

Direct satellite connections for mobile phones and other new models and business formats are achieving large-scale applications, with satellite communication users exceeding ten million. As D2C technology matures, billions of smartphones worldwide are expected to become potential terminal entry points for communication satellites. Currently, mainstream terminal manufacturers such as Apple and Huawei have taken the lead in deploying satellite communication functions in high-end models. Low Earth orbit high-throughput communication satellites (HTS) significantly increase capacity and reduce unit bandwidth costs, making them an important development direction for future communication satellites.

Compared with traditional communication satellites, high-throughput satellites use technologies such as multi-point beams and frequency reuse, providing dozens to hundreds of times the capacity of traditional satellites, increasing from less than 10 Gbit/s to tens or even hundreds of Gbit/s. The average rate has basically reached parity with 4G, offering richer application scenarios and more comprehensive communication guarantees. Starlink currently covers over 100 countries and regions globally, with more than 7 million active users, proving the certainty of its demand and the vast market space After exploration and brave pursuit, China has entered a new stage in commercial spaceflight

In 1970, China's first artificial satellite "Dongfanghong-1" was successfully launched, making China the fifth country in the world to independently launch an artificial satellite. The successful development of this satellite laid a solid technical foundation for the subsequent development of the space industry and established a complete aerospace engineering system. Entering the 21st century, private space companies represented by SpaceX have rapidly risen globally, and China's satellite manufacturing industry has gradually transitioned from government-led to market-driven. Currently, a new pattern has formed in China, where traditional national forces like China Satellite under the Fifth Academy of Aerospace and emerging commercial companies such as Shanghai Yuanxin, Galaxy Space, Changguang Satellite, and Weina Starry Sky are jointly promoting the construction of China's low-orbit satellite constellation.

The application and popularization of new technologies in satellite payloads and satellite platforms under the trend of cost reduction

Musk claims that the manufacturing cost of a single Starlink satellite has fallen below $500,000, proving the feasibility of this model at the commercial level. The United States started satellite development early, and the scale of satellite platforms has progressed faster than in China, resulting in a lower cost proportion for satellite platforms. Once China achieves large-scale production, it is expected to reduce the cost-value ratio of satellite platforms to a smaller range, thereby concentrating the main manufacturing costs on effective payloads. At the same time, under the scale demand for low-orbit communication satellites, key components and high-value segments in the satellite manufacturing field will gain new opportunities.

Investment recommendations

Focus on satellite internet networking companies and operators, as licensing advantages and scale advantages will become core competitive strengths in the satellite internet field; pay attention to satellite whole star research and manufacturing companies to share the dividends of China's rapid satellite internet networking period; focus on key components in satellite manufacturing: phased array antennas; inter-satellite laser interconnections; electric propulsion; flexible solar wings, and other key segments with high value.

Risk warning

The progress of satellite internet networking is lower than expected; the decline in manufacturing costs is not as expected; satellite on-orbit connections and related technology validations are lower than expected