Changjiang Securities' Xiao Yong: The triple resonance of fundamentals, policies, and valuations drives the coal sector to strengthen

Recently, the coal sector in the A-share market has performed strongly. Xiao Yong, the co-chief analyst for metals and coal at Changjiang Securities, stated in the Times Salon that the coal sector saw significant gains in October, driven by a triple resonance of fundamentals, policies, and valuations. From a fundamental perspective, the price of thermal coal has surged sharply, with a daily increase reaching 10 yuan/ton, which is relatively rare in history. The price fluctuations are mainly due to demand and supply factors. On the demand side, the unexpected drop in temperatures in the north and the gradual cooling in the south have led to an increase in daily consumption at power plants, with available inventory days lower than in previous years, resulting in a strong demand for restocking. On the supply side, stricter safety regulations and "anti-involution" policies have suppressed overproduction, limiting supply release. From a valuation perspective, although some leading stocks in the industry have a high PE ratio, their dividend yield can still reach around 5%, meeting the cost requirements for insurance liabilities, and the dividend yield also offers a certain cost-performance ratio compared to the overall market. The elastic targets are mainly coking coal varieties and elastic thermal coal varieties, with PB percentile values at historical lows over the past decade, making the coal sector more advantageous in comparison to the overall market