TrendForce: It is expected that the contract price of DDR5 will continue to rise in 2026, with profit performance starting from the first quarter to be better than HBM3e

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the contract price of Server DRAM in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to rise due to the expansion of data center scale by global cloud service providers (CSPs), leading to a stronger upward trend and driving overall DRAM prices higher. Looking ahead to 2026, it is estimated that Server demand will remain strong, and the contract price of DDR5 may show an upward trend throughout 2026. As the price of DDR5 continues to rise, narrowing the price gap with HBM3e, the profitability of DDR5 is expected to outperform HBM3e starting from the first quarter of 2026. TrendForce indicates that although the DRAM contract price for the fourth quarter has not yet been fully established, suppliers have shown a significantly increased willingness to raise quotes after receiving additional order demands from CSPs. Based on this, TrendForce has adjusted its price forecast for conventional DRAM in the fourth quarter, raising the expected increase from the previous 8-13% to 18-23%, with a high likelihood of further upward adjustments. Looking ahead to 2026, it is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of Server shipments will expand to around 4%, and as various CSPs actively adopt high-performance computing architectures to support large model computations, the DRAM capacity per Server unit will increase, pushing overall DRAM bit demand above expectations and leading to a continued supply shortage. Due to the strong demand for Servers, it is expected that the contract price of DDR5 will show an upward trend throughout 2026, particularly more significantly in the first half of the year. In comparison to the current HBM pricing situation for 2026, as the competitive landscape for HBM3e among the three major manufacturers takes shape, and buyers maintain a certain level of inventory, it is anticipated that contract prices will turn to a year-on-year decrease. TrendForce analyzes that in the second quarter of 2025, there will still be a price gap of more than four times between HBM3e and DDR5, with the former providing better profitability for suppliers. However, as the price of DDR5 continues to rise, the price gap between the two will significantly narrow in 2026, and starting from the first quarter of 2026, the profitability of DDR5 will outperform HBM3e. As HBM3e and DDR5 capacities compete with each other, it is expected that after the profitability structure flips, suppliers may choose to further increase the supply of Server DDR5 to solidify their profit base. At the same time, as HBM3e prices stabilize and demand momentum remains strong, suppliers may also seek to increase the average selling price (ASP) to balance product mix profitability. In the future, the capacity allocation and pricing strategies between DDR5 and HBM by manufacturers will become variables affecting the market direction in the next phase