FACTBOX-Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to reach $4,500/Oz by mid-2026

(Updates with forecast from Morgan Stanley) Oct 31 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the economic outlook remains uncertain. “Recent price action took gold well into ‘overbought’ territory on an RSI (Relative Strength Index) basis, but the recent correction has taken it to a healthier level, likely cleaning up positioning,” Morgan Stanley said in a note. The bank expects continued buying of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as interest rates decline, alongside steady purchases by central banks, albeit at a slower pace and stabilization in jewelry demand. However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to shift toward other asset classes or decisions by central banks to reduce gold reserves. Gold prices have surged over 54% year-to-date, hitting multiple record highs in 2025, including the latest peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, but have retreated more than 8% since then. The rally in gold this year has been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong gold-backed ETF inflows. Following is a list of analysts’ latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce): Brokerage/ Annual Price Forecasts Price Forecas Agency Targets t as of 2025 2026 Morgan $3,398 $4,400 $4,500 by October Stanley mid 2026 31 Citi $3,400 $3,250 Lowers 0-3 October Research month price 28, target to 2025 $3,800 JP Morgan $3,468 $4,753 Expects October prices 23, reaching an 2025 average of $5,055/oz by 4Q26 HSBC $3,455 $4,600 $4,600 per October ounce by 17, year-end 2025 2025 ANZ $3,494 $4,445 $4,400 by October year-end and 16, $4,600 by 2025 June 2026 Bank of $3,352 $4,438 2026 gold October America outlook 13, raised to 2025 $5,000 Societe $3,455 $4,716 $5,000 by October Generale the end of 13, 2026 2025 Standard $3,402 $4,488 - October Chartered 13, 2025 Goldman $3,400 $4,525 $4,900 by October Sachs December 7, 2025 2026 Commerzban $4,000 - $4,200 by October k* the end of 7, 2025 next year Deutsche $3,291 $4,000 $4,300 by Septemb Bank Q4-2026 er 17, 2025 UBS $3,320 $3,825 Decline in October real rates, 16, potentially 2025 into negative territory, could push gold towards $4,700 *end-of-period forecasts