The duration of the U.S. government shutdown is approaching historical records, and Trump misjudged the Democrats' determination; the "critical moment" is about to arrive

Since October 1, the U.S. government shutdown is about to enter its 32nd day, just one step away from the longest record of 35 days set in 2018-2019. 31 days, 22 hours, and 21 minutes, the countdown on the White House's official website regarding the government shutdown continues... Currently, the prospects for breaking the deadlock remain bleak. According to CCTV News report on November 2, based on the latest meeting schedule of the U.S. Senate on November 1, the next vote in the Senate to advance the appropriations bill to end the government "shutdown" will not begin until the evening of November 3 at the earliest, which will be the 34th day of this U.S. government "shutdown." U.S. Vice President Vance even warned that if the deadlock continues into the Thanksgiving holiday in late November, U.S. air traffic could face a "disaster." Trump Administration Misjudges Democrats' Resolve Media analysis indicates that the core of this deadlock lies in the Trump administration and its Republican allies' failure to anticipate the Democrats' tough stance in budget negotiations. In the early days of the shutdown, White House officials made internal predictions, and no one guessed that the shutdown would exceed 10 days. They believed that federal employees being furloughed without pay, limited public services, and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought's threats to cut more jobs would be enough to force the Democrats to concede. However, as the deadlock entered its second month, Trump's patience had clearly worn thin. He told reporters on Friday: "The Democrats have no idea what they are doing! I don't know what's wrong with them. They've never done anything like this before. They've gone completely crazy. They just need to say, 'Let's open our country.' Everything will return to normal immediately. So, it must be their problem." It's all their fault. Everything is their fault. This problem is easy to solve... Trump turned to public pressure, urging Republicans to invoke the "nuclear option" to abolish the Senate's filibuster rules, thereby passing the appropriations bill with a simple majority to unilaterally reopen the government. But this request was quickly rejected by party leaders such as the Senate Majority Leader. The proposal had few supporters within the Republican Party, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson both expressing their stance on maintaining the rule. Meanwhile, a recent poll by ABC News shows that more Americans blame this government shutdown on Trump and Congressional Republicans, despite the White House's official website stating, "Democrats shut down the government." Shutdown Continues, U.S. Economy and Society Face Multiple Challenges Trump's tough statements come at a time when the U.S. economy and society are facing multiple pressure tests According to CCTV News, funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food assistance to approximately 42 million low-income Americans, was interrupted on November 1. Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued ground delay orders in New York, Boston, and other locations due to staff shortages, increasing pressure on the aviation system. One of the most urgent issues is the interruption of SNAP funding, which covers about one-eighth of the U.S. population. Although a federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration must use emergency funds to maintain the program, Trump responded that they must wait for the court to provide "appropriate legal guidance" and warned that the disbursement of funds may still be delayed. The chaos in the aviation industry is also escalating. Reports indicate that due to air traffic controllers working without pay, absenteeism has increased, leading to flight delays at major airports such as New York and Dallas. Additionally, millions of government employees have missed their first full paycheck, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that military pay may face a funding risk on November 15. At the same time, with the new enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) beginning, many consumers are facing significant premium increases as enhanced subsidies from the pandemic period expire. "Critical Moment" Approaching, Focus on November 3 Amid the deadlock, there was a glimmer of hope earlier this week. Reports indicate that lawmakers involved in the negotiations revealed that dialogue between the two parties had made progress. Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto stated on Thursday that this week's discussions were "more productive than ever before." However, the core differences in negotiations remain. Democrats insist on negotiating the extension of the soon-to-expire ACA subsidies before reopening the government, while Republicans demand that Democrats first vote to support the reopening of the government before discussing other issues. Trump reiterated last Friday that he would not meet with Democratic leadership unless they first allowed the government to reopen. His demand to abolish the filibuster has also been seen as an additional obstacle to these "delicate negotiations." As the negative impacts continue to accumulate, the political pressure on both sides is also escalating. Currently, the U.S. Senate plans to hold the next vote on the evening of November 3 (the 34th day of the shutdown), and the market is closely watching whether the two parties can reach a compromise at the last moment