Huachuang Securities: Continues to emphasize investment opportunities in the express delivery industry under "anti-involution," remains optimistic about SF Holding

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it continues to be optimistic about the express delivery industry under the trend of reducing competition, with price elasticity being realized. Observing the third quarter, Shentong Express (002468.SZ) saw a Q3 revenue per ticket increase of 0.082 yuan compared to Q2, with gross profit per ticket rising by 0.026 yuan, net profit per ticket increasing by 0.013 yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items per ticket increasing by 0.018 yuan. YTO Express (600233.SH) reported a Q3 revenue per ticket increase of 0.026 yuan compared to Q2, net profit per ticket rising by 0.015 yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items per ticket increasing by 0.012 yuan. Considering the different pricing rhythms in various regions in Q3 and the intense price competition still ongoing in July, it is expected that there will be significant monthly growth in August and September, with September serving as a foundation for continued performance in the fourth quarter. The firm remains optimistic about investment opportunities in SF Holding (002352.SZ).

The main points of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Business Volume: Industry demand maintains resilient growth, with a 17.2% increase in volume in the first three quarters of 2025

1. In the first three quarters of 2025: Volume growth of 17.2%, with SF leading the growth. Business volume and market share for the first three quarters of 2025: YTO (22.6 billion pieces, 15.6%) > Yunda (19.1 billion pieces, 13.2%) > Shentong (18.9 billion pieces, 13.0%) > Jitu (16.2 billion pieces, 11.1%) > SF (12.1 billion pieces, 8.3%). In terms of volume growth: SF (33.4%) > YTO (15.0%) > industry (13.3%) > Shentong (10.7%) > Jitu China (10.4%) > Yunda (6.6%). Note: Jitu refers to the business volume in the Chinese market, while SF refers to express business volume.

2. In the third quarter of 2025: Volume growth of 13.3%, with SF having the fastest growth. Volume growth: SF (33.4%) > YTO (15.0%) > industry (13.3%) > Shentong (10.7%) > Jitu China (10.4%) > Yunda (6.6%). Note: Jitu refers to the business volume in the Chinese market. Q3 market share: YTO (15.6%) > Shentong (13.2%) > Yunda (13.0%) > Jitu China (11.3%) > SF (8.7%).

Price: Significant increase in average ticket price in the first three quarters of 2025

1. Industry: In the first three quarters of 2025, the industry express delivery revenue reached 1,085.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; average revenue per ticket was 7.5 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%.

2. Performance of various companies: YTO (2.18 yuan, -4.9%) > Shentong (2.02 yuan, -2.0%) > Yunda (1.94 yuan, -5.7%); SF's revenue per ticket was 13.83 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%. In Q3 2025: YTO (2.14 yuan, -2.4% year-on-year, +0.026 yuan quarter-on-quarter) > Shentong (2.05 yuan, +2.1% year-on-year, +0.082 yuan quarter-on-quarter) > Yunda (1.95 yuan, -2.1% year-on-year, +0.035 yuan quarter-on-quarter); SF (13.57 yuan, -14.4% year-on-year, +0.079 yuan quarter-on-quarter) Performance Overview: SF Holding Leads the Industry in Profit for the First Three Quarters of 2025

3. Profit Analysis: Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025: SF Holding (8.31 billion, +9.1%) > YTO Express (2.88 billion, -1.8%) > Shentong Express (760 million, +15.8%) > Yunda Express (730 million, -48.2%). Excluding non-recurring gains and losses: SF Holding (6.78 billion, +0.5%) > YTO Express (2.77 billion, -1.7%) > Shentong Express (760 million, +18.7%) > Yunda Express (650 million, -44.1%). For Q3 2025: Net profit attributable to shareholders: SF Holding (2.57 billion, -8.5%) > YTO Express (1.05 billion, +11.0%) > Shentong Express (300 million, +40.3%) > Yunda Express (200 million, -45.2%). Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, SF Holding (2.23 billion, -14.2%) > YTO Express (1.01 billion, +9.1%) > Shentong Express (320 million, +59.6%) > Yunda Express (200 million, -40.6%).

4. Per Shipment Analysis: The non-recurring net profit per shipment increased by 0.01 yuan or more compared to Q2. Non-recurring net profit per shipment: For the first three quarters of 2025, YTO Express 0.123 yuan > Shentong Express 0.040 yuan > Yunda Express 0.034 yuan; for Q3 2025, YTO Express 0.131 yuan > Shentong Express 0.049 yuan > Yunda Express 0.031 yuan. From a year-on-year perspective: Shentong Express had the highest growth in Q3 2025. Q3 2025 non-recurring net profit per shipment: Shentong +0.015 yuan, YTO -0.007 yuan, Yunda -0.025 yuan. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, Q3 2025 non-recurring net profit: Shentong +0.018 yuan, YTO +0.012 yuan, Yunda +0.010 yuan.

5. Asset Analysis: In the first three quarters of 2025, YTO Express and Yunda Express saw rapid year-on-year growth in capital expenditures. For the first three quarters of 2025, capital expenditures for SF Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express were 6.7 billion, 6.3 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.6%, +34.1%, +51.9%, and -10.5%.

Risk Warning: Significant slowdown in e-commerce growth, price wars exceeding expectations