Hong Kong real estate market warms up: Daniel Zhang and other wealthy individuals flock to buy super luxury homes, mainland residents have spent nearly 100 billion on buying properties in Hong Kong

"In the past few months, things have indeed gotten busy, especially in September and October: there have been more clients and more transactions." Zhang Heng (pseudonym) expressed this sentiment at the end of October. He has been working as a real estate agent in Hong Kong for over six years. Having witnessed several cycles in the Hong Kong real estate industry, he believes that "there are already signs of a recovery in the Hong Kong property market." Zhang Heng's clientele mainly consists of first-time homebuyers and the middle class.

He Zhaotang, head of the luxury residential department at Centaline Property, shares a similar feeling. Having been engaged in luxury property sales in Hong Kong for 39 years, his luxury team remains the sales champion of Centaline Property this year. As of the end of September, he and his team have earned over HKD 100 million in commissions. He expects that by the end of the year, their commissions could reach HKD 150-180 million—this is not far from their historical best performance of HKD 200 million in commissions.

In the nearly two years prior to this, many real estate agents in Hong Kong, including Zhang Heng, have been living under the shadow of "the Hong Kong property market is not doing well," and market transactions have been relatively cool. He noted that in the past two months, good news has been continuous, and he himself has sold several new homes. The CCL index from Centaline Property, which reflects the trend of Hong Kong property prices, has fallen from 167.9 points in May 2023 to 135 points at the end of May this year, and has since slowly risen to the current 141 points.

In Zhang Heng's words, although the current market situation is still somewhat distant from the boom of summer 2021, "the increase in transaction volume indicates that the market is warming up." At that time, the CCL index from Centaline Property peaked at 190 points.

He Zhaotang confidently stated, "The Hong Kong property market has stabilized and is warming up." In his view, the confidence of mainland buyers is clearly stronger than that of local Hong Kong residents, especially in the luxury property segment priced above HKD 30 million, "the momentum for mainland buyers to actively purchase luxury properties in Hong Kong has returned."

Significant Recovery in Transaction Volume In the first 9 months, mainland buyers spent nearly HKD 100 billion on properties in Hong Kong

The current transaction volume in the Hong Kong property market is proving the viewpoints of Zhang Heng and He Zhaotang: the property market is stabilizing and warming up. The Centaline Property (Residential Price Index) CSI reported 58.59 points as of the end of October, reaching a new high since the end of March 2024 (58.98 points), and has stabilized above 55 points over the past nine weeks. This data has fallen from 62.43 points in the week of March 11, 2024, to 36.58 points in early August 2024, and has since slowly climbed to the current level.

The transaction volume of new homes has also significantly increased in the past few months. Data from the Hong Kong government shows that in the third quarter of this year, 5,530 new homes were sold, totaling over HKD 61 billion, compared to 5,403 homes and HKD 63.487 billion in the previous second quarter. If internal transfers are excluded (note: in the second quarter, one development had 133 internal transfers totaling HKD 17.0651 billion, and in the third quarter, another development had 5 internal transfers involving HKD 586 million), the third quarter saw increases of 7.5% in transaction volume and 30.3% in sales compared to the second quarter However, compared to the new housing market, the Hong Kong second-hand housing market is still in a state of fluctuation. According to data from the Hong Kong Lands Department, there were a total of 9,909 second-hand housing transactions in the third quarter of 2025, a decrease of 3% compared to 10,175 in the second quarter. He Zhaotang stated that the recovery of the second-hand housing market is slightly lagging behind that of the first-hand market.

"The sentiment of buyers entering the market is increasing, especially the enthusiasm of mainland buyers for purchasing properties in Hong Kong has returned," He Zhaotang told Tencent News' "Qianwang." He noted that the mainland clientele his team has recently received has become noticeably more active. The data he provided shows that by the end of September, buyers registered with Mandarin Pinyin (local Hong Kong residents or overseas Chinese generally use Cantonese Pinyin, while Mandarin Pinyin is typically used by mainland residents) had purchased a total of 9,900 properties in Hong Kong, involving a total financial amount of HKD 94.1 billion, with 2,567, 3,559, and 3,797 units purchased in the first three quarters, respectively.

"Compared to Hong Kong residents, mainland buyers prefer new properties," He Zhaotang stated. Data from Hong Kong Property shows that in the third quarter, 1,983 new homes were purchased by mainland buyers, a year-on-year increase of 1.75 times, with a market share of 38.7%. This means that in the past quarter, nearly 4 out of every 10 properties sold in Hong Kong were purchased by mainland buyers.

This has set a new record for the number of mainland buyers purchasing properties in Hong Kong, with the highest being in the second quarter of 2024, when the Hong Kong government abolished all additional stamp duties for mainland buyers, leading to a surge of mainland buyers flocking to Hong Kong to purchase properties.

In terms of monetary value, the enthusiasm of mainland buyers for new properties in Hong Kong is even more pronounced. Data from Hong Kong Property shows that in the third quarter, the amount involved in new property purchases by mainland buyers in Hong Kong reached HKD 50 billion, approaching 70% of the first half of the year, with a market share of 48%.

"If we include the transaction data from the recently concluded October, the amount involved in purchases by mainland buyers far exceeds the current statistics," He Zhaotang predicts that this year, the number of properties purchased by mainland buyers in Hong Kong may exceed 12,000, breaking last year's record of 11,600, and the amount will also surpass last year. Public data shows that in 2024, the amount involved in property purchases by mainland buyers in Hong Kong is approximately HKD 130 billion.

Over 80% of New Buyers of Luxury Homes in Hong Kong Are Mainland Residents: Hong Kong's Local Tycoons Remain Troubled by the Plummeting Retail Market

"The market for super luxury homes in Hong Kong is almost entirely comprised of mainland buyers," He Zhaotang told Tencent News' "Qianwang." He has been involved in super luxury home transactions in Hong Kong for nearly 40 years. He mentioned that the number of mainland wealthy clients he and his team serve has been increasing, and in recent months, over 80% of the super luxury homes (priced over HKD 50 million) sold in the market have been purchased by mainland buyers.

He Zhaotang provided data showing that in October, Hong Kong recorded a total of 57 transactions of super luxury homes priced over HKD 50 million, of which he and his team were responsible for 25 transactions, achieving a market share of 44%. "This month, all the super luxury homes sold by our team were purchased by mainland buyers."

He revealed that the best-selling super luxury home in Hong Kong in October was the new development "Tianyu" in Mid-Levels, which sold a total of 10 units, each priced over HKD 100 million. Tencent News' "Qianwang" learned that many of these buyers are wealthy individuals from the mainland These buyers are relatively young and belong to the newly wealthy in mainland China. Some buyers come from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, while others are engaged in emerging industries such as AI in the Greater Bay Area.

Public information shows that the project is developed by New World and Henderson Land together, divided into two phases. The top floor of the project features two three-story duplex sky villas, each with an area of over 450 square meters—this is the largest split-level unit in all of Hong Kong. Local Hong Kong media reported at the end of October that the daughter of the old money family, Luo Jiansheng, purchased a sky villa in Tianyu for HKD 354 million.

According to He Zhaotang, mainlanders buying super luxury homes in Hong Kong now tend to be relatively young, with most not exceeding 50 years old. These mainland wealthy individuals often travel between mainland China and Hong Kong, with some family members residing in Hong Kong for personal use, but many mainland buyers do not reside in Hong Kong frequently.

Having served the wealthy for nearly 40 years, He Zhaotang is very clear that selling super luxury homes in Hong Kong is similar to work in other financial industries: the order cycle for these wealthy individuals is not short. In his words, the transaction duration for a super luxury home usually lasts around one year, or even two years. "Buying a super luxury home is actually one of the ways for the wealthy to allocate their assets."

A mainland buyer looking for a super luxury home in Hong Kong once revealed to Tencent News' "Qianwang" that they prefer new houses with good views and locations, and they hope for well-decorated interiors. This buyer had previously lived in Zhulin Garden at the foot of Wan Chai for their child's education but did not plan to buy, believing the house was too old. This is an old luxury property held by Hong Kong developer Hysan Development, which has been around for 40 years and was previously rented out for a long time before starting to sell some properties this year. Former Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang recently purchased a four-bedroom unit for HKD 53.54 million.

Most of the mainland wealthy individuals that He Zhaotang interacts with share the same views as the aforementioned potential buyers, which explains why the super luxury home "Tianyu," rebuilt in Hong Kong, is favored by mainland wealthy individuals. Data provided by He Zhaotang shows that Tianyu sold 10 units in October, many of which were purchased by mainland buyers.

In addition, mainland wealthy individuals still have a strong preference for luxury homes on The Peak. Public data shows that the TwelvePeak villa, located on The Peak and under Sun Hung Kai Properties, recently completed the sale of two villas, one being a new house sold for HKD 350 million and the other a second-hand house sold for HKD 280 million—both were purchased by mainland buyers.

He also stated that this round of mainland wealthy individuals buying super luxury homes in Hong Kong is mainly concentrated in the postal-free area and the Greater Bay Area, and most of these wealthy individuals also have super luxury homes in other global cities.

He believes that buying super luxury homes is equivalent to asset allocation for the wealthy, so the logic of the super luxury home market is somewhat different from that of the ordinary housing market. The former may be more concerned with macro perspectives such as the US-China rivalry, while the latter may be more related to microeconomic factors like the job market.

In his view, during this period, the wealthy have gained more confidence in Hong Kong's future—this is also one of the reasons for the increased activity in super luxury home transactions in Hong Kong. According to data from Centaline Property, in the third quarter of this year, a total of 45 super luxury homes were sold in Hong Kong, including 30 new homes and 15 second-hand homes, involving an amount of HKD 9.414 billion, with both the number of transactions and the amount increasing by 50% compared to the previous quarter Regarding the increasingly rare phenomenon of local Hong Kong tycoons buying super luxury homes this year, Ho Siu Tong expressed that he is not surprised. This is because the wealthy in Hong Kong are mostly still concentrated among the old money families, with a limited number of new tycoons. These old money families have historically favored investing in Hong Kong's commercial properties, as the appreciation of these properties has been good in the past, and the rental income has been relatively stable.

However, in the past five years, Hong Kong's retail industry has been sluggish, and commercial property prices have been on a downward trend, with some areas experiencing price halving and a lack of market activity.

Ho Siu Tong told Tencent News' "Outlook" that many wealthy locals in Hong Kong are still trapped in the pain of plummeting commercial property values and are struggling to recover. This has also led many old money families in Hong Kong to gradually sell off their assets, including the local established real estate investment firm JiHui Group, which has sold off assets over the past year, including but not limited to some office buildings in Central, shops in Wan Chai, and villas in Repulse Bay, even the traditional luxury home of its CEO in Yangming Villa has been sold.

In addition, the older generation of Hong Kong's old money is gradually aging, and most are facing family divisions of inheritance—resulting in a dispersion of their funds. Ho Siu Tong stated that Hong Kong's super luxury property market is undergoing a "blood transfusion," with more and more mainland tycoons choosing Hong Kong, while the presence of local wealthy individuals is becoming increasingly rare—it's uncertain when they will return. "From the transaction data, it seems that mainland tycoons have more confidence in Hong Kong than local wealthy individuals."

The mainland tycoons buying properties in Hong Kong are mostly new tycoons, and Ho Siu Tong noted that they have little interest in commercial properties in Hong Kong.

Reasons for Mainland People Buying Properties in Hong Kong: Besides High Rental Yield, the Importance of Hong Kong's Position in the Sino-U.S. Game in the Context of Interest Rate Cuts

In line with the views of most financial professionals in Hong Kong, Ho Siu Tong stated that mainland tycoons have limited options for asset allocation, and Hong Kong real estate is the most easily understood and convenient investment for them.

An increasing number of mainland individuals are willing to invest in small units in Hong Kong for rental purposes, especially among mainland tycoons. Previously, these tycoons were reluctant to invest in small units, believing that managing multiple small units for rental was too complex.

Ho Siu Tong mentioned that during this period, there has been a notable increase in investors among mainland individuals buying properties in Hong Kong, including some super-rich individuals. Tencent News' "Outlook" learned that a mainland tycoon recently purchased more than 20 units in the new development "Luo Chen" located above the Ap Lei Chau MTR station, involving an amount of around HKD 200 million, with each unit's rent reaching between HKD 25,000 to over HKD 30,000.

In terms of investment quantity, the most popular development among mainland buyers this year is Kennedy 33, located near the Hehe Center in Wan Chai, with an average price of around HKD 10 million to HKD 20 million per unit. Ho Siu Tong revealed to Tencent News' "Outlook" that over 90% of the buyers for this development are from the mainland, including some self-use buyers and many investors.

"The high rental yield is the most important factor for buyers' willingness to invest." This is a consensus among several real estate professionals in Hong Kong, including Ho Siu Tong. According to data from the Hong Kong government, since November 2024, the rental index in Hong Kong has risen from 191.9 to 200 by the end of September 2025, marking nearly a year of continuous growth Prior to this, there was only a 0.8-point pullback in November 2024, after rising for more than two years from 178.2 points in September 2021.

Many real estate and financial professionals in Hong Kong unanimously believe that as the number of people coming to Hong Kong continues to increase, foreseeable rents will still rise. Currently, many rental-to-sale ratios in the Hong Kong market can meet over 2%, with some even reaching as high as 4%.

"Hong Kong property prices have already bottomed out, which is a view shared by many buyers entering the market now," said He Zhaotang. He added that apart from the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut at the end of October, the market anticipates further rate cuts in the U.S. by the end of the year, which may sustain positive sentiment in the Hong Kong property market. Many real estate professionals in Hong Kong, including him, believe that the market has stabilized and is warming up.

More importantly, He Zhaotang believes that in the past few months, the rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased many people's wealth, especially the significant wealth increase among the wealthy, which is also a reason for their gradual choice to enter the market.

Yang Mingyi, Senior Co-Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, also believes that the improving stock market is indeed one of the important factors for the better transaction atmosphere in the Hong Kong property market. The Hang Seng Index broke through 26,000 points in September and even rose to 27,000 points in October, reaching a four-year high.

Chris Xia told Tencent News' "Qianwang" that in October, he sold four properties by himself, including two new homes and two second-hand homes, compared to an average of about one property per month during the quiet first half of the year; his business has clearly improved. His clients are mainly financial professionals in Hong Kong. From his experience, after the stock market improves for a period, his transaction volume also increases. He has been engaged in real estate sales in Hong Kong for five years and recently developed a brokerage platform called "Hong Kong Drifter Property."

However, many financial professionals still have differing views on whether the Hong Kong property market has "bottomed out." Liang Zhanjia, a real estate analyst at UBS Investment Bank for the Greater China region, previously told Tencent News' "Qianwang" that the current Hong Kong property market is still in a "game" between buyers and sellers or developers, and whether it has bottomed out remains inconclusive. From the overall market perspective, the future trend of the Hong Kong property market in the next six months may depend on the unemployment rate in Hong Kong; if it exceeds 4%, it is very likely to continue declining. Public data shows that the unemployment rate in Hong Kong reached 3.9% in the third quarter.

He Zhaotang, however, is much more optimistic. He believes that the unemployment rate may more affect transactions or prices of properties in demand, and if the stock market continues to improve, the impact of the unemployment rate may be somewhat offset. As for the super luxury property market, he believes it will not be significantly affected by the unemployment rate.

Author of this article: Xie Zhaoqing, Editor: Liu Peng, Source: Tencent Finance - Tencent News "Qianwang", Original Title: "Hong Kong Property Market Warms Up: Daniel Zhang and Other Tycoons Rush to Buy Super Luxury Homes, Mainland Residents Have Spent Nearly 100 Billion on Properties in Hong Kong"

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