Traders Balance China Trade Risk; South American Weather Ahead Of WASDE - The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with Fed Williams Speech at 2:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 6:00 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations at 9:00 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., and ed Miran Speech at 2:00 P.M.The National Association of Realtors Home Affordability Index for September rose 3.9% from August to 104.5 but was slightly below a year ago for the first time since January. The index implies that the median home price in the US is affordable for the median income. However, the index remain well below the highs of 2020 and early 2021 and the closer to the lows of 2007 and the early 1990 low. The combination of elevated interest cost and rising home prices has been the most negative contributor to home affordability. However, interest rates continue to leak lower and are well under the 7%+ highs. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year rate this week was at 6.22%, down from 6.79% a year ago.Photo by Waldemar on UnsplashSouth American Weather Pattern UpdateRain Soaks Much of Brazilian Soy Belt; Outlook Favorable as Drier Weather Emerges in Argentina:The South American forecast is consistent & favorable into November 20th . Additional showers of .50-1.50” impact Cordoba and far northeast Argentina into the weekend. Welcomed sunshine blankets Argentina throughout the 6-15 day period. The Brazilian forecast is routine in nature and features daily showers across the central and northern crop areas and one soaking event in Rio Grande do Sul in the far south today and early in the weekend. The coverage of dryness in South America will be minimal during mid-November. Heavily concentrated soy producing areas of Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana have recorded precipitation of 1-4.50”. Notice also that rainfall of 1+” has been recorded in key corn producing areas of central Argentina. Additional Brazilian rainfall is forecast into mid-November.South American Crop Progress UpdateSouth American Crop Progress Evolving Normally; Argentine First Crop Corn Planting Completed:Timely rainfall across Brazil and ending drought in Argentina have kept spring seeding progress aligned with long-term averages. Argentina’s corn crop this week is 36% planted, unchanged from last year and which implies the first crop is entirely in the ground. The corn growing season in central-east Argentina is now 40 days old and will be without threats for at least another 2-3 weeks. Argentina’s first crop is currently rated at 79% GD/EX, vs. 29% a year ago, the highest since 2021. The crop is off to an excellent start. Early pollination begins in late November. Crop critical weather in Argentina lies just 30 days away! Soy seeding in Parana this week is 79% complete. Soy seeding in Mato Grosso today is forecasted to reach 88-90% completed. The normal evolution of crop progress in South America means it’s December-January weather that’s critical to corn & soy yield determination. There are no problems for 2025 Brazil and Argentine crops into November 20th .Corn Comments & AnalysisCBOT Corn Drops as US-Chinese Trade Questioned; Chinese Demand for US Sorghum at 6,000 MT’s; South American Origin Offered Competitively Through March:CBOT corn ended sharply lower. Bullish sentiment is tied to elevated soybean prices and hope for Chinese purchases of US soybeans in the coming week. The framework of US-Chinese rare earth trade turned murkier with Asian sources suggesting that differences in US/China trade exist. And China is yet to confirm imports of US soybeans in any detail. US cash corn basis levels are weak. Spot bids in Cedar Rapids show no urgency despite lower than expected yields in Iowa. Argentine corn is offered near parity with US origin into March – the remainder of Argentina’s old crop year. Any re-test of $4.50 requires USDA to print a yield on Nov 14th below 180 BPA. Continue to reward rallies with new cash sales. There’s no compelling bull story in global feed markets without the emergence of lasting dryness in Argentina. Normal Argentine weather triggers the return of bearish sentiment in Q1 2026. Recall November is not typically a bullish month for corn. A NASS corn yield above 184 BPA will produce US 2025/26 corn end stocks closer to 2,400 Mil Bu. WASDE must adjust for lower feed/residual use on Q4 2025, which will also cause a 100-150 Mil Bu drop in 2025/26 US corn feed/residual use.More By This Author:USDA To Resume Crop Reports: WASDE Returns Nov 14th - The Corn & Ethanol ReportU.S./China Trade Deal: Corn Excluded, Futures Feel the Pinch - The Corn & Ethanol ReportChina To Resume Soybean & Other Ag Purchases - The Corn & Ethanol Report