Trump reiterates "tariff refunds": Every American will receive a $2,000 "dividend"

In the context of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on the legality of tariffs, Trump defended his trade policy and proposed the idea of directly returning funds to Americans. On Sunday, November 9, Trump posted on social media, claiming that his tariff policy would provide "at least $2,000 in dividends for everyone," excluding high-income individuals. He described tariffs as a key tool for a strong U.S. economy, record-high stock markets, and future repayment of massive national debt, calling those who oppose tariffs "fools." However, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin provided a more cautious interpretation of this proposal in a media interview. Mnuchin stated that he had not had specific discussions with the president about it and suggested that the $2,000 "dividend" could appear in "various forms and ways." This statement quickly cooled market expectations, shifting the focus from direct cash stimulus to the government's broader tax agenda. These remarks come at a time when the Trump administration's tariff authority is facing severe legal scrutiny. The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of tariffs on November 5, and if the final ruling is unfavorable, it could not only force the government to refund over $100 billion in collected tariffs but also undermine the foundation of its economic strategy. This creates uncertainty around any fiscal commitments related to tariffs. "$2,000 Dividend" May Be Reflected in Tax Cuts According to reports, Mnuchin explicitly linked this "dividend" to the government's tax cut agenda. He explained that this funding could be reflected through a series of tax cuts on the president's agenda, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, as well as achieving tax relief on auto loans. This suggests that the so-called "dividend" is more likely an economic benefit estimate from a policy combination rather than a one-time direct payment. Trump and his Treasury Secretary also exhibited different emphases on the core goals of tariffs. Trump emphasized in his post that the U.S. is "gaining trillions of dollars" from tariffs and will soon begin repaying the $37 trillion "massive debt." However, Mnuchin pointed out in the interview that the "real goal" of tariffs is to "rebalance trade," ultimately achieving trade fairness by encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. He acknowledged that as manufacturing returns, tariff revenues would actually decline, but the increased domestic economic activity would provide a more solid tax base. Tariff Policy Faces Key Supreme Court Ruling The entire tariff framework of the Trump administration hangs on the Supreme Court's ruling. According to CCTV News, on Wednesday, November 5, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court debated the legality of President Trump's large-scale tariff imposition. Wall Street Journal mentioned that during several hours of intense debate, Chief Justice John Roberts and Trump-appointed Justices Amy Barrett and Neil Gorsuch sharply questioned the Trump administration's position. These three conservative justices all questioned the legality of the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs monthly, signaling that the final ruling could shake the foundations of Trump's signature economic policy The media summary indicates that a majority of the Supreme Court justices seem skeptical of Trump's emergency tariff policy, with several conservative justices dismissing many of the government's main arguments in defense of import tariffs. The overall tone suggests that at least a majority of the justices are cautious about the government's reliance on declaring a state of emergency to implement unrestricted global tariffs. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk