After experiencing a sharp decline last month with a market value evaporation of hundreds of billions of dollars, Bitcoin is struggling to seek a rebound. However, weak market sentiment and ongoing selling pressure are making any recovery attempts difficult.
Despite positive news from Washington regarding the end of the government shutdown boosting traditional risk assets, the cryptocurrency market has not seen the strong rally that was anticipated, highlighting the lingering unease among investors following significant losses.
The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly broke through $107,000 on Monday but quickly fell back below $105,000. This lackluster price performance stands in stark contrast to the rising stock and credit markets due to the reopening of the U.S. government, indicating that the internal momentum of crypto assets remains insufficient.
According to Bloomberg, since the record liquidation triggered by Trump's unexpected tariff announcement on October 10, Bitcoin's market value has shrunk by approximately $340 billion. The market generally believes that the recent slump is partly due to early large holders (i.e., &#34;OG whales&#34;) taking profits near the annual highs, while the shadow of the large-scale liquidation event in early October still looms.
Signs of weakness are confirmed by several key indicators. Data measuring market sentiment and leverage levels show that investor enthusiasm has yet to recover. Meanwhile, key resistance levels on technical charts continue to exert heavy pressure on prices, and market participants have divergent views on the outlook.
<h2>Key Indicators Show Lack of Momentum</h2>
A series of data indicates that the driving force behind Bitcoin's rise has not yet returned. The total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures is currently about $68 billion, significantly lower than last month's peak of $94 billion, reflecting a notable cooling of speculative interest in the derivatives market. At the same time, the funding rates used to measure the cost of leveraged positions remain stable, indicating that traders are not actively leveraging long positions.
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More concerning is the underwhelming performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are an important source of new funds for the market. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, despite a broad rise in the U.S. stock market on Monday, Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. only recorded a net inflow of $1 million that day. George Mandres, a senior trader at XBTO Trading, pointed out that the insufficient new funds represented by ETF inflows continue to impact market risk sentiment.
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<h2>Technical Resistance Abounds</h2>
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's outlook also faces challenges. Currently, its price remains below the 200-day moving average (currently close to $110,000), a level that analysts generally view as a key threshold for any sustained upward trend
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IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore stated that prices need to consistently break above the 200-day moving average to &#34;significantly increase people's confidence in the view that the upward trend has resumed.&#34; FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich also noted that the broader cryptocurrency total market capitalization is encountering technical resistance at the 50-day moving average around $3.62 trillion. He believes the market may be forming a new, lower local high, continuing the downward trend that began over a month ago.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas added that $103,000 is a key structural support level. If this level is breached, it could open the door for prices to drop towards $86,000 or even deeper to $82,000 (which aligns with the 100-week moving average), and any behavior that breaks below these areas could reignite selling pressure.
<h2>Divergent Market Views: Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?</h2>
There is a clear divergence in market participants' interpretations of Monday's brief rally. Some believe it is merely a temporary respite in a bear market, while others are looking for early signs of a trend reversal.
George Mandres bluntly stated that this rebound &#34;feels like a dead cat bounce.&#34; He believes that sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is different from that in the stock market, with significant attention on the narrative surrounding early Bitcoin buyers selling large amounts of tokens, which is weakening risk appetite. Alex Kuptsikevich also stated that the market is clearly not ready to shift to a &#34;crazy optimistic mode,&#34; as profit-taking continues after the growth impulse.
However, some analysts hold a relatively positive view. Tony Sycamore pointed out that the most significant feature in the past 24 hours is that Bitcoin briefly tracked the rise of risk assets after experiencing a correlation breakdown last month. He considers this a &#34;positive sign&#34; and technically analyzes that the correction from the $126,272 high may have completed at the recent low of $98,898.
Rachael Lucas described the recent rise as a &#34;classic short covering rally, mixed with some institutional FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment.&#34; This view suggests that the current rise is driven more by structural market factors rather than a solid return of fundamental confidence

GBTC

ABTC

Bitcoin has struggled to rebound after last month's sharp decline. Despite traditional risk assets rising due to the U.S. government's restart, Bitcoin has failed to break through key resistance levels, and ETF inflows have nearly dried up, highlighting a lack of market momentum. The technical outlook shows it is still constrained by the 200-day moving average. Analysts have significant disagreements on whether the recent rebound is a "dead cat bounce" or a trend reversal, and market sentiment remains fragile

- Bitcoin is struggling to rebound after a significant market drop, with weak sentiment and ongoing selling pressure hindering recovery efforts.  
- Despite positive news from Washington, the cryptocurrency market has not seen the expected strong gains, reflecting investor unease following substantial losses.  
- Key indicators show a lack of momentum, with Bitcoin's price remaining below critical technical levels, leading to mixed market interpretations regarding the potential for a trend reversal or a temporary bounce.

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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

American Bitcoin

The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains weak, and the positive news of the "U.S. government shutdown" ending did not lead to a significant rebound in Bitcoin