Breakfast | AMD surged 9% leading the S&P, Circle plummeted 12% after earnings

Market Overview The U.S. House of Representatives is about to end a historic government shutdown, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for four consecutive days to a new high, first breaking above 48,000 points, but tech stocks have once again declined, the Nasdaq and small-cap stocks lagged for the second consecutive day. Over the past two days, the Dow's relative outperformance against the Nasdaq has reached its highest level since February. Nvidia narrowly closed up 0.33%. Meta fell nearly 3%, leading the decline among the seven tech giants. AMD surged 9%, leading the S&P 500. After earnings, Circle plummeted 12%, while Cisco rose over 7%. Compared to Monday's close, U.S. Treasury yields have decreased. The dollar surged and then fell, dropping 0.3% from its daily high. Bitcoin experienced a V-shaped reversal, briefly rising above $105,000, then sharply declining, falling over 4% from its daily high, testing $100,000 again. Gold has risen for four consecutive days, up 1.7% on the day, briefly rising back to $4,200, while silver rose over 4%. U.S. oil plummeted over 4.2%. During the Asian session, A-shares closed down across the board, with photovoltaics leading the decline, while pharmaceuticals and banks collectively surged. Hong Kong stocks rose across the board, with new consumption continuing its upward trend, Agricultural Bank of China A and H shares hitting new highs, with a market capitalization exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Key News Li Ming, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: Firmly prevent large fluctuations in the market, rapid rises and falls. This Wednesday, Trump will have dinner with Wall Street CEOs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra: Trump mentioned issuing $2,000 tax refunds to families earning less than $100,000, reiterating “gradual” adjustments to U.S. debt issuance, emphasizing that market stability is the top priority. The Federal Reserve is experiencing personnel changes again, with the Atlanta Fed President, who advocates for “no rate cuts in December,” set to retire in February next year. The “third in command” at the Federal Reserve: The Fed may soon begin to restart bond purchases to manage liquidity. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of Fed Governor Cook, scheduled for January 21. AI has become a new variable in Fed policy, with Fed governors warning that it has begun to drag down job growth. U.S. September non-farm payrolls will be released as early as Friday, October non-farm payrolls may be “gone,” but Goldman Sachs expects it to be “the worst since December 2020.” A series of unofficial data indicates that U.S. October inflation may sharply cool down. The Indian military has maintained a high state of alert, with Pakistan stating it is “in a state of war,” the capital explosion incident has intensified tensions between India and Pakistan. Kimi Yang Zhilin: When will K3 be released? Before the completion of Ultraman's trillion data center. Demand for AI servers is strong, Foxconn's Q3 net profit grew 17% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with revenue increasing by 11%. The first in the U.S.: Alphabet's Waymo will supply self-driving taxis on highways. Stablecoin issuer Circle reported a 66% increase in Q3 revenue to $740 million, with profits far exceeding expectations, USDC stablecoin circulation doubling year-on-year, but investors are concerned about falling interest rates, leading to a 12% drop in stock price. ** Luckin Coffee CEO: Preparing to restart the US stock listing, but there is currently no clear timetable. OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast, shifting from "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" in Q3, oil prices plummet by 4%. Market Closing Report US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 index closed up 0.06%, at 6850.92 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.68%, closing at 48254.82 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.26%, closing at 23406.457 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.71%, at 584.23 points, continuing to set a new closing historical high. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14 points, down 0.07%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62 points, down 0.36%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3122.03 points, down 0.39%. Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell by 4.47 basis points, at 4.0713%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond fell by 2.49 basis points, at 3.5659%. Commodities: WTI December crude oil futures fell by 4.18%, at $58.49 per barrel. Brent January crude oil futures fell by 3.76%, at $62.71 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose by 2.15%, at $4204.90 per ounce. News Details Global Highlights CSRC Vice Chairman Li Ming: Firmly prevent large fluctuations in the market, sudden rises and falls. According to Shanghai Securities News, CSRC Vice Chairman Li Ming stated that on the investment side, efforts should be made to continuously improve the market ecology for long-term funds and investments, promote the implementation of plans for the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, continuously expand the scale and proportion of equity investments such as social security, insurance, and annuities, deepen public fund reforms, enrich index products suitable for long-term investments, and better leverage the stability and ballast role of medium- and long-term funds. In addition, strengthen the strategic reserve of forces and the construction of market stabilization mechanisms to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market, and firmly prevent large fluctuations in the market, sudden rises and falls. Countdown to the end of the US government shutdown: House to vote on temporary funding bill Wednesday night. House Republican leader Scalise stated that the vote on the bill is expected to take place around 7 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, with hopes of garnering enough support from Democratic members. The White House press secretary stated that this government shutdown could reduce economic growth by two percentage points in the fourth quarter This Wednesday, Trump will have dinner with Wall Street CEOs. U.S. President Trump is expected to have dinner at the White House this Wednesday evening with Wall Street executives, including the CEOs of Nasdaq and JP Morgan. Analysts say the meeting aims to deepen the Trump administration's relationship with the business community and garner support for its economic agenda to strengthen U.S. capital markets and rebuild critical supply chains. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: Trump discusses issuing $2,000 tax refunds to families earning less than $100,000, reiterates "gradual" adjustments to U.S. Treasury issuance, emphasizing market stability as a top priority. Basant reiterated that "large-scale" tax refunds will arrive in early 2026. He also revealed that the Trump administration will announce "substantial" tariff news in the coming days and plans to implement tariff reductions on goods such as coffee and bananas. He expects U.S. real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year. He attributed the "small hiccup" in the economy to the government shutdown and emphasized that the economy was in good shape before the shutdown. Basant stated that the scale of U.S. Treasury auctions will remain unchanged in the coming quarters, but the U.S. Treasury is "closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for specific U.S. Treasuries" and will adjust accordingly. Basant emphasized maintaining a "regular and predictable" issuance principle and has begun considering increasing the issuance of long-term bonds to diversify maturities, reduce rollover risk, and avoid market disruption. Federal Reserve sees personnel changes again! Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" to retire in February next year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced on Wednesday that he will retire when his current five-year term ends at the end of February next year. Analysts point out that Bostic's departure will bring more uncertainty to the Federal Reserve, which is currently experiencing other notable personnel changes and facing political pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates. On the same day, Bostic also stated that inflation remains a greater risk to the U.S. economy, and he prefers to keep interest rates unchanged until it is clear that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. "The Fed's third-in-command": The Fed may soon begin to restart asset purchases to manage liquidity. New York Fed President John Williams said that the next step in the Fed's balance sheet strategy will be to assess when reserves reach adequate levels. At that point, the Fed will begin to gradually purchase assets to maintain sufficient reserve levels, as other liabilities of the Fed continue to grow, and the potential demand for reserves will increase accordingly Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Federal Reserve cannot cancel interest payments on reserves at this time. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case of Federal Reserve Governor Cook on January 21! Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case in December that could overturn a 1935 ruling protecting the leaders of independent agencies, which may directly impact the outcome of the Cook case and relate to the scope of the U.S. President's power to dismiss heads of independent agencies. AI has become a new variable in Federal Reserve policy, with Federal Reserve Governor Barr warning that it has begun to drag down job growth. Artificial intelligence is reshaping the U.S. labor market and monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Governor Barr warning that AI has prompted companies to reduce hiring, potentially becoming a new main cause of job slowdown; trillions of dollars in capital are flowing into data centers, expected to significantly enhance productivity, bringing unprecedented changes and challenges to the economy and policy-making. The U.S. government is about to reopen, with the September non-farm payrolls report possibly released as early as Friday, and the October non-farm payrolls may be "missing," but Goldman Sachs expects it to be "the worst since December 2020". According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may release the delayed September non-farm payrolls report this Friday, as the data for the report was collected before the government shutdown. The October non-farm data may be missing, but Goldman Sachs expects the official non-farm payrolls for October to be revised down by 50,000, marking the first negative growth in nearly three years. The White House: The U.S. may never release the October CPI and employment data. Housing rents have seen the largest decline in fifteen years, is U.S. inflation about to collapse in October? A series of unofficial data indicates that U.S. inflation may sharply cool in October. The core reason is that housing rents fell by 0.31% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in fifteen years, shaking the largest pillar of the CPI. At the same time, commodity prices have significantly slowed due to increased discounts from merchants. Although Goldman Sachs' model predicts that core CPI remains resilient, the weak trends in rents and durable goods have led the market to begin anticipating that the Federal Reserve may shift to a dovish stance. The Indian military remains on high alert, with Pakistan claiming to be "in a state of war," the capital explosion incident exacerbates tensions between India and Pakistan. According to Global Times, a car explosion occurred near the Red Fort in New Delhi, India, on the afternoon of the 10th, resulting in at least 13 deaths and 20 injuries. The police have arrested several suspects and initiated a counter-terrorism investigation. The next day, an explosion in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, also resulted in 12 deaths, with the terrorist organization "Bata" claiming responsibility. The situation between the two countries has sharply escalated, with the India-Pakistan border entering a state of high alert According to reports, there are currently no casualties among Chinese personnel. Give the foreigners a little shock? Kimi Yang Zhilin: When will K3 be released? Before the completion of Ultraman's trillion-dollar data center. Is the training cost of $4.6 million true? When will K3 be released? How far is AGI? Yang Zhilin's team answered dozens of questions in one go. Strong demand for AI servers! Foxconn's Q3 net profit increased by 17% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with revenue growth of 11%. Driven by strong demand for AI servers, the company's Q3 net profit reached NT$57.67 billion (approximately $1.89 billion), a year-on-year increase of 17%; revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. This marks that the giant known for iPhone manufacturing is successfully opening up new high-growth business areas. Foxconn's chairman expressed optimism about the prospects for artificial intelligence development in 2026 and will announce specific details of cooperation with OpenAI next week. The memory upcycle is "far from over"! Morgan Stanley: Investors should hold memory stocks rather than "timing the market," and beware of "sharply rising costs" in consumer electronics and PCs. Morgan Stanley stated that the intensity and durability of the AI-driven memory supercycle may far exceed market expectations. The core driving force has shifted from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are insensitive to price. Recently, server DRAM prices surged by 70%, with spot prices rising by 336%. Investors are advised to "hold steady" rather than timing the market, favoring memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung that have pricing power, but remain cautious about the serious cost pressures and profit squeezes facing downstream consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones. The first in the U.S.: Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, will supply self-driving taxis on highways. Waymo announced on Wednesday that it will launch a self-driving taxi service that includes highway segments in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles, becoming the first self-driving company in the U.S. to enter commercial operations on highways. Waymo stated that the highway service will be available around the clock and plans to gradually expand to more cities. Analysts believe this marks a key turning point for Waymo's commercialization and will enhance its competitiveness against ride-hailing and traditional taxi services. Stablecoin issuer Circle's Q3 revenue increased by 66% to $740 million, with profits far exceeding expectations, and the circulation of USDC stablecoin doubled year-on-year. The latest financial report shows that Circle's Q3 earnings per share were $0.64, exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $0.20 by 220% The company's net profit from continuing operations was $214 million, demonstrating strong profitability in its core business. The significant increase in USDC circulation has become a key factor driving Circle's revenue growth. The company's stablecoin circulation has more than doubled compared to the same period last year, indicating a sustained market demand for regulated stablecoins. However, investor concerns about declining interest rates outweighed the strong earnings report, causing Circle's stock price to plummet by 12%. Luckin Coffee CEO: Preparing to restart US stock listing, but there is currently no clear timetable. Luckin Coffee is preparing to return to the US stock market nearly five years after being delisted from Nasdaq due to a financial fraud scandal. CEO Guo Jinyi confirmed the relevant plans but stated that there is currently no clear timetable, and the company's top priority is to focus on business operations and strategic execution. With the support of Dazhong Capital, Luckin has revived and become China's largest coffee retailer, and is currently accelerating its expansion into the US market. OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast, Q3 shifts from "shortage" to "oversupply," oil prices plunge 4%. In its latest monthly report, OPEC stated that due to higher-than-expected production in the US and increased supply from OPEC itself, the global oil market has shifted from shortage to surplus in the third quarter, with supply exceeding demand by about 500,000 barrels per day. The OPEC Secretariat raised its supply forecast for non-OPEC+ countries by 890,000 barrels, with more than half coming from the US. Domestic Macro Xin Shiping: Where does China's market's strong "magnetic attraction" come from. The "magnetic attraction" of China's large market stems from its scale advantage and open-mindedness. Platforms such as the Canton Fair and the China International Import Expo showcase the strong vitality of the Chinese market. With a population of 1.4 billion and being the world's second-largest consumer market, China has a super-large scale advantage that attracts global companies to participate and invest. China promotes development through openness, providing development opportunities and a good business environment for all countries. In the first nine months of this year, the number of newly established foreign enterprises increased by 16.2% year-on-year, confirming that "investing in China is investing in the future." He Lifeng pointed out during a meeting with the head of the National Committee on US-China Relations that both sides should jointly maintain and implement the important consensus and outcomes of the leaders' meeting, promoting the stable development of US-China economic and trade relations. According to Xinhua News Agency, He Lifeng stated that there is broad cooperation space between China and the US in the economic and trade fields, and both sides should move towards each other, jointly maintain and implement the important consensus and outcomes of the leaders' meeting in Busan, strengthen cooperation, manage differences, and promote the stable development of US-China economic and trade relations. He hopes that the National Committee on US-China Relations will make new contributions to promoting friendly cooperation between the two countries. He Lifeng also introduced the relevant situation of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China High Tariffs on China? Opposition in Mexico is Growing. According to Global Times, Mexico's plan to impose high tariffs on China has been postponed again due to rising domestic opposition, with concerns within the ruling party and manufacturing sector that this move will increase production costs and weaken industrial competitiveness. The Chinese side firmly opposes any coercive trade restrictions, emphasizing the need to protect its own rights and calling for a joint defense of the multilateral trading system. National Energy Administration: Researching Support for Eligible New Energy Integration Projects through Local Government Special Bonds. It mentions optimizing the approval (filing), grid access, and power business license processes for new energy integration projects, encouraging a one-stop handling of related procedures for projects. Local governments are encouraged to study multi-party cooperation mechanisms for new energy and industrial integration projects based on actual conditions. Research is being conducted to support eligible new energy integration projects through local government special bonds. With Total Investment Exceeding $20 Billion, the World-Class Simandou Iron Ore Project Officially Commences Production, China Gains Greater Pricing Power in Global Iron Ore. The world-class Simandou project officially commenced production on November 11, with reserves exceeding 4.4 billion tons and an iron grade of 65%. The project is led by Chinese enterprises, with deep participation from China Aluminum Group and China Baowu Steel Group. The commencement of production will break the monopoly of the three giants: Rio Tinto, BHP, and Vale. Analysts point out that "China has never had such a level of pricing power in seaborne iron ore." For the First Time, a Bank Cancels Five-Year Fixed Deposit Products and Lowers Rates on Other Terms, What’s Going On? According to Daily Economic News, the pressure on net interest margins in the banking sector is accelerating to the liability side, with Inner Mongolia's Tuyang Mengyin Village Bank being the first to cancel five-year fixed deposit products, and many small and medium-sized banks simultaneously lowering deposit rates. This transformation on the liability side driven by margin pressure highlights that global financial institutions are responding to profit pressures by optimizing their liability structures. Domestic Companies The Timing for A-Share Style Switching is Right: Coal, Consumption, and Banking Take Turns to Explode, Who Will Be Next? Institutions believe that investors are shifting from chasing "future elasticity" to seeking "current certainty," with investment concepts transitioning from simply "buying good" to "buying well considering valuation." The bull market will smooth out every "low point," and this round of market led by "old forces" is expected to continue through the fourth quarter. Is the Valuation Repair Market Starting? Why Did Agricultural Bank's PB Stand Above 1 First Among the Four Major Banks? Tianfeng Securities believes that the key to Agricultural Bank's success lies in its outstanding performance in financial market operations, with net other non-interest income growth leading in the first three quarters, and a low proportion of TPL accounts The duration control strategy and precise grasp of bond trading points have achieved floating profits during the bond market adjustment period. In addition, the four fundamental factors brought by Agricultural Bank of China’s deep cultivation in county-level financial services, including credit expansion potential, interest margin resilience, and asset quality advantages, also support valuation recovery. From a more macro perspective, the banking sector enters a seasonal "tailwind period" from November to January of the following year. Rumors trigger a sharp decline in the photovoltaic sector, industry associations and related companies urgently refute the claims, with the secretary-general stating: we will not stop until we eliminate vicious competition! It was rumored that the photovoltaic industry’s storage plan has "failed," leading to a sharp decline in the A-share photovoltaic sector, with the photovoltaic 50 ETF once dropping over 5%. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association urgently refuted the claims, stating that the relevant work is progressing steadily. The association's executive secretary-general Liu Yiyang expressed on social media that they will promote industry self-discipline and "anti-involution" work under the guidance of relevant ministries, pushing for the orderly exit of backward production capacity from both supply and demand sides, stating, "We will not stop until we eliminate involution-style vicious competition." Huawei announces "Top Ten Inventions," involving computing power, storage, and other technologies. Huawei announced the results of its "Top Ten Inventions" at the sixth Innovation and Intellectual Property Forum, covering key technologies such as Scale-up super node computing power platform, next-generation ultra-high-capacity SSD storage, and short-distance optical interconnection. These groundbreaking inventions achieve a doubling of computing cluster performance and a leap in storage system capacity through full-stack architecture innovation, showcasing Huawei's hardcore technological strength in computing infrastructure and storage. HSBC: Old Paved Gold is expected to break free from the gold price cycle and leap to a "Tiffany-style" luxury brand. HSBC stated that the growth logic of Old Paved Gold is shifting from reliance on gold prices' "golden flywheel" to brand-driven "brand flywheel," which is expected to break free from the cyclical constraints of gold prices. Its market share in China's high-end jewelry market has risen from 10% to 16%, with 77% of customers overlapping with Western luxury brands. The valuation system should be reshaped, and its brand attributes should align it with global luxury giants like Tiffany, with a target price of HKD 973.70 based on the DCF model. Overseas Macro Multiple favorable factors converge, Wall Street is making a full push for the US stock "year-end rally". Despite market fluctuations, the end of the government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have built solid support for the market, with investors actively positioning bullish options betting on the year-end market. The restart of corporate stock buybacks and the inflow of retail funds effectively hedge against systemic selling pressure, combined with the significance of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report as an AI barometer, multiple favorable factors are driving a continuous warming of market risk appetite. "Little Deng" is injured, "Old Deng" rises, is this a signal of rotation between "growth-value" in US stocks? The style of US stocks has quietly switched, with "Old Deng stocks" representing the Dow Jones index hitting new highs, while "Little Deng stocks" in the technology growth sector show signs of fatigue Analysis suggests that this round of rotation is driven by concerns over the AI bubble and recognition of value stocks. This shift from "pure growth stocks" to "pure value stocks" has been ongoing since August and is currently accelerating. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains fragile, and the positive impact of the "U.S. government shutdown" ending has not led to a decent rebound in Bitcoin. After experiencing a sharp decline last month, Bitcoin has struggled to rebound. Although traditional risk assets have risen due to the U.S. government reopening, Bitcoin has failed to break through key resistance levels, and ETF inflows have nearly dried up, highlighting a lack of market momentum. Technical indicators show it is still constrained by the 200-day moving average, and analysts have significant disagreements on whether the recent rebound is a "dead cat bounce" or a trend reversal, with market sentiment remaining weak. Food costs have significantly decreased, and India's October inflation has dropped to a record low, raising expectations for interest rate cuts. Driven by a record drop in food prices, India's October inflation rate increased by only 0.25% year-on-year, marking a historical low. This figure is far below the central bank's target of 4% and its latest forecast, prompting strong market expectations for accelerated easing of India's monetary policy. Analysts generally believe that the consecutive low inflation rates pave the way for the central bank to cut interest rates in December and February next year. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's vague statements support market expectations for interest rate hikes: Central bank policy is crucial for the economy and inflation. In a meeting of the government's Economic and Fiscal Policy Council, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that monetary policy needs to balance a strong economy with stable inflation. Although he did not directly support interest rate hikes, he hinted at the expectation of coordination between the central bank and government policies, with his wording shifting from a previously dovish stance to a more cautious one. The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates before January next year. Overseas Companies Giants are "finding ways" for off-balance-sheet financing! These three "massive AI financings" are so "innovative" that the entire Wall Street is watching. Meta's financing plan for the Hyperion mega data center combines private equity, project financing, and investment-grade bonds, with the core idea being to borrow money for the Hyperion project through "others." The interest rate on these bonds reaches 6.58%, significantly higher than the 5.5% yield of similar bonds from Meta's peers. A financing tool set up by Musk's ally Antonio Gracias leverages billions of dollars in debt financing from private credit funds, specifically for purchasing chips. The leading indicator of the "AI bubble" — bonds of U.S. cloud providers face consecutive sell-offs. According to Bank of America data, a basket of bonds issued by "hyper-scale providers" such as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle has seen its yield spread relative to U.S. Treasuries rise to 0.78 percentage points, the highest level since the market turmoil triggered by Trump's tariffs This may be a "leading indicator" for the risk reassessment of the entire AI narrative. Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion on data centers, with the first sites located in Texas and New York. The first data centers are expected to be operational by 2026. Meta commits to spending over $1 billion to build a data center in Wisconsin, USA. The project is expected to be operational by 2027 and will provide approximately 100 full-time jobs. Wall Street giants enter the game: JP Morgan launches the dollar deposit token JPM Coin for 24/7 trading and second-level payments. JP Morgan officially launched the JPM Coin dollar deposit token, enabling 24/7 second-level transactions through blockchain technology, ushering in a new era of payment settlement. The deposit token can earn interest and is accepted by mainstream institutions like Coinbase, providing an innovative model for the integration of traditional finance and digital assets, accelerating the competition among global giants. Today's News Preview The U.S. Treasury will auction $25 billion in 30-year bonds. San Francisco Fed President Daly, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak. UK Q3 GDP. Tencent, JD.com, SMIC, and Bilibili will release earnings reports. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes from last week.