Morning Trend | Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank actively lowers, local bank risk sentiment rises again?

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618.HK) has recently taken a proactive downward approach, with the daily MACD death cross structure continuing, indicating a clear weak pattern. The stock opened low and continued to decline, consecutively losing the 5-day moving average and important technical levels, with bears dominating the market rhythm and defensive attributes gradually weakening. The main driving factor is the significant risk control pressure on local banks, with net interest margin pressure and deteriorating expectations for credit assets continuously fermenting. Meanwhile, the spillover of real estate credit risks is continuously transmitting to the local financial system. Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's balance sheet is notably affected by local fiscal and economic fluctuations, leading some long-term funds to choose to reduce holdings for risk aversion. Regulatory trends continue to push for deleveraging and enhance supervision of non-performing assets, increasing overall market vigilance. From a technical analysis perspective, the price is consolidating below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, showing no effective support. If it breaks below the HKD 4 psychological level today, the previous low of HKD 3.85 is likely to be tested again. The shrinking trading volume and the outflow of funds during the intraday session resonate, which is unfavorable for building a bottoming pattern, while the short-term high-low switching has intensified the defensive or evasive sentiment of the main funds. The rotation of short-term hotspots is accelerating, and the market lacks upward momentum. The banking sector as a whole may need to wait for the full release of industry risks and substantial easing signals from policies before the main funds return. Currently, speculative funds are scarce, and the sector is experiencing severe differentiation, with the elasticity of local financial stocks becoming the source of short-term volatility amplification. Operational advice: Focus on defense and avoid increasing positions against the trend. If holding, adjustments should be made cautiously based on key support levels and intraday fluctuations. If there are no clear signals, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines