"Forecast" Brokers expect Xiaomi's adjusted net profit in the third quarter to rise 61% year-on-year, focusing on smartphone costs and automotive business profitability (Update)
Xiaomi Corporation-W (01810.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year today (18th). The performance may be affected by the slowdown in smartphone and AIoT sales, due to a decline in shipments in China and India. According to IDC data, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments in the third quarter reached 45.3 million units, a quarterly increase of 2%, with shipments in the Chinese market at 10 million units. The market expects Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries in the third quarter to exceed 100,000 units, which will contribute to its performance. A comprehensive analysis from 15 brokerages predicts that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter of 2025, measured by non-International Financial Reporting Standards, will range from RMB 9.51 billion to RMB 10.557 billion, compared to RMB 6.252 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.1% to 68.9%, with a median of RMB 10.065 billion, up 61% year-on-year.
Based on predictions from 9 brokerages, Xiaomi's profit for the third quarter of this year is expected to range from RMB 8.939 billion to RMB 10.941 billion, compared to RMB 5.34 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.4% to 104.9%, with a median of RMB 10.1 billion, up 89.1% year-on-year.
Xiaomi's smartphones are primarily concentrated in emerging markets, and the lower average selling price may drag down quarterly revenue growth. Additionally, the rising costs of components such as DRAM and NAND Flash will lead investors to focus on Xiaomi management's plans regarding smartphone product costs and gross margins, guidance on shipment volumes for the coming quarters, profitability of the automotive business, capacity expansion, and gross margin delivery plans.
【Smartphone Costs Under Pressure, Automotive Business Driving Growth】
Citi published a report stating that Xiaomi's overall revenue for the third quarter is expected to be RMB 112.866 billion, up 22% year-on-year (down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter). It is estimated that revenue from the smartphone business will be RMB 46.268 billion, down 2.5% year-on-year (up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter), revenue from IoT and lifestyle consumer products will be RMB 27.407 billion, up 5% year-on-year (down 29% quarter-on-quarter), revenue from internet services will be RMB 9.191 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year (up 1% quarter-on-quarter), and revenue from innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles is expected to soar to RMB 29.001 billion, up 2 times year-on-year (over 36% quarter-on-quarter).
Citi expects Xiaomi's gross profit for the third quarter to be RMB 25.668 billion, up 36% year-on-year (down 1.7% quarter-on-quarter), estimating that the gross profit from the smartphone business will be RMB 5.089 billion, down 8.3% year-on-year (down 2.5% quarter-on-quarter), with the gross margin for the smartphone business dropping to 11% (compared to 11.5% last quarter). It is estimated that the gross profit from IoT and lifestyle consumer products will be RMB 6.441 billion, up 18.9% year-on-year (down 26% quarter-on-quarter) (with a related gross margin of 23.5%). The gross profit from internet services is estimated to be RMB 6.893 billion, up 5.2% year-on-year (with a related gross margin of 75%). The gross profit from innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles is estimated to be RMB 7.395 billion, up 3.45 times year-on-year (up 32% quarter-on-quarter) (with a related gross margin of 25.5%, compared to 26.4% last quarter). It is estimated that research and development expenses for the third quarter will be RMB 7.618 billion, up 28% year-on-year The bank expects Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter under non-International Financial Reporting Standards to be RMB 10.005 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The operating gross margin is expected to be 9% (compared to 7% in the third quarter of 2024 and 12% in the second quarter of 2025), with a net profit margin of 8%.
The bank estimates that Xiaomi's revenue from innovative businesses such as electric vehicles in the third quarter will be RMB 29.001 billion, with a delivery volume of approximately 109,000 vehicles and an average selling price of about RMB 260,000. In September, the delivery volume of electric vehicles increased to over 40,000 units. The bank believes that Xiaomi will exceed its annual target, delivering 386,000 vehicles by the end of the year at a pace of 40,000 vehicles per month, and achieving the bank's estimated annual delivery volume of 400,000 vehicles at a pace of 45,000 vehicles per month. Credit Lyonnais believes that Xiaomi's second factory is ready, but the issuance of production licenses has been delayed due to the "anti-involution" policy. Xiaomi may be discussing long-term production plans with the mainland government, and the timing of license issuance is still unclear, possibly extending to next year. Currently, Xiaomi has 400,000 locked orders, with a waiting time of 40 to 50 weeks. The gross margin is expected to remain at a high level of 25.5%, and the operating profit margin is expected to achieve breakeven for the first time.
JP Morgan expects Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter of 2025 under non-International Financial Reporting Standards to be RMB 10.114 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%. The profit is expected to be RMB 9.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76%, with an operating gross margin of 22.7% and estimated revenue of RMB 110 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The bank expects Xiaomi to deliver 43.5 million smartphones, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with an estimated average selling price of RMB 1,010 and a smartphone gross margin of 11%. The bank expects Xiaomi to deliver 108,000 electric vehicles in the third quarter, with revenue from the electric vehicle business at RMB 28.374 billion, and estimates that the electric vehicle business will turn profitable, earning RMB 300 million (compared to a loss of RMB 300 million in the second quarter of this year).
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 15 brokerage firms, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter of 2025 under non-International Financial Reporting Standards is expected to be between RMB 9.51 billion and RMB 10.557 billion, an increase of 52.1% to 68.9% compared to RMB 6.252 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 10.065 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.
Brokerage│Adjusted net profit forecast for the third quarter of 2025 under non-International Financial Reporting Standards (RMB)│Year-on-year change
CICC│RMB 10.557 billion│+68.9%
BOCI│RMB 10.478 billion│+67.6%
UBS│RMB 10.403 billion│+66.4%
Citi│RMB 10.239 billion│+63.8%
Huatai Securities│RMB 10.169 billion│+62.7% JP Morgan │ CNY 10.114 billion │ +61.8%
Bank of America Securities │ CNY 10.069 billion │ +61.1%
Daiwa │ CNY 10.065 billion │ +61%
CITIC Securities │ CNY 10.037 billion │ +60.5%
Goldman Sachs │ CNY 10.037 billion │ +60.5%
China Merchants International │ CNY 10.014 billion │ +60.2%
Citi │ CNY 10.005 billion │ +60%
China Jianyin Investment │ CNY 9.714 billion │ +55.4%
Jefferies │ CNY 9.698 billion │ +55.1%
Haitong International │ CNY 9.51 billion │ +52.1%
Based on Xiaomi's non-GAAP net profit of CNY 6.252 billion for the third quarter of 2024
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According to the forecasts of 9 brokerages, Xiaomi's profit for the third quarter of this year is expected to be between CNY 8.939 billion and CNY 10.941 billion, compared to CNY 5.34 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.4% to 104.9%, with a median of CNY 10.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.1%.
Brokerage │ Profit Forecast for Q3 2025 (CNY) │ Year-on-Year Change
Goldman Sachs │ CNY 10.941 billion │ +104.9%
Haitong International │ CNY 10.884 billion │ +103.8%
Jefferies │ CNY 10.661 billion │ +99.6%
CITIC Securities │ CNY 10.266 billion │ +92.2%
HSBC Global Research │ CNY 10 billion │ +89.1%
CICC │ CNY 9.888 billion │ +85.2%
BOCI │ CNY 9.765 billion │ +82.9%
JP Morgan │ CNY 9.4 billion │ +76%
Bank of America Securities │ CNY 8.939 billion │ +67.4%
Based on Xiaomi's profit of CNY 5.34 billion for the third quarter of 2024
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According to the forecasts of 16 brokerages, Xiaomi's revenue for the third quarter of this year is expected to be between CNY 108.4 billion and CNY 115.889 billion, compared to revenue of CNY 92.507 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% to 25.3%, with a median of CNY 112.417 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%.
Brokerage │ Revenue Forecast for Q3 2025 (CNY) │ Year-on-Year Change
UBS │ CNY 115.889 billion │ +25.3%
CITIC Securities │ CNY 114.39 billion │ +23.7%
Huatai Securities │ CNY 113.397 billion │ +23%
BOCI │ CNY 113.776 billion │ +23%
Citi │ CNY 112.866 billion │ +22% China International Capital Corporation│CNY 112.663 billion│+21.8%
China Merchants Bank International│CNY 112.623 billion│+21.7%
Bank of America Securities│CNY 112.477 billion│+21.6%
CICC│CNY 112.357 billion│+21.5%
Citigroup│CNY 112.274 billion│+21.4%
Daiwa│CNY 111.593 billion│+20.6%
Jefferies│CNY 111.058 billion│+20.1%
JP Morgan│CNY 111 billion│+20%
Goldman Sachs│CNY 110.821 billion│+19.8%
Haitong International│CNY 109.828 billion│+18.7%
HSBC Global Research│CNY 108.4 billion│+17.2%
Based on Xiaomi's revenue of CNY 92.507 billion for the third quarter of 2024
