<div id="readability-page-1">Money Markets Surf Air: SRFM Stock To $25?  ByTrefis Team ,  Contributor.  Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Building a platform to do the job of 1 million analysts for  Great Speculations Follow Author Nov 18, 2025, 09:00am EST Share Save Comment  CANADA - 2025/06/25: In this photo illustration, the Surf Air Mobility logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Surf Air Mobility stock (NYSE: SRFM) has certainly experienced a decline lately, dropping from approximately $8.80 in mid-July to $2.63 currently, effectively erasing most of the gains it had made earlier this summer. The primary cause of this decline appears to be a mix of factors. Firstly, they are still struggling with considerable net losses—$27.2 million in Q3 2025 and $28.0 million in Q2 2025.  Additionally, there is a genuine concern regarding the risk of further shareholder dilution, particularly after the $27 million direct equity offering in July and a significant $100 million strategic transaction that also involved issuing new equity. Ultimately, this stock volatility combined with the underlying financial fragility has significantly dampened investor excitement following that initial price surge.  However, it’s not all doom and gloom! In spite of these challenges, some investors remain quite hopeful about the company's long-term prospects, particularly with respect to their electrification and software platform initiatives. Indeed, their Q3 earnings report showcased several silver linings, such as surpassing their revenue expectations and achieving a second consecutive quarter of profitability in their airline operations when considering adjusted EBITDA.  So, what’s the bullish case rationale?  It’s straightforward: Surf Air isn’t merely an airline—it’s evolving into the software infrastructure provider for an entirely new category of aviation. If SurfOS becomes the operating system for advanced air mobility in the same way that Palantir became vital for defense and intelligence, we’re talking about a fundamentally different business model characterized by software-grade margins.  That said, if you’re looking for upside potential with less volatility than holding a single stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio . This portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark—a blend of the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and S&amp;P MidCap indexes—and has generated returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a collection, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered better returns with a lower risk compared to the benchmark index; it’s a smoother journey, as evidenced by the HQ Portfolio performance metrics.  MORE FOR YOU Surf Air’s Upside Potential Surf Air is actively positioning itself for a long-term transformation at this moment. While the bulk of the company’s revenue presently comes from its conventional operations—such as regional scheduled flights, charter operations, and cargo services—the significant potential for the stock primarily resides in the company’s ambitions to electrify short-haul regional air travel. They plan to achieve this by implementing hybrid and fully electric propulsion systems in their existing fleet.  On the software front, Surf Air has greatly strengthened its partnership with Palantir, the artificial intelligence software powerhouse. Recently, Palantir increased its investment during a funding round and now owns nearly 20% of the company. This close association also extends to their operational activities: they have a five-year exclusive software partnership, and Surf Air’s own SurfOS platform is powered by Palantir’s AI technology. SurfOS is being developed to function as the next-generation operating system for the entire aviation sector.  Why would that justify 10x upside? Examine the market dynamics: every new eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) manufacturer, every regional airline adopting electric aircraft, every urban air mobility operator—they all require software to manage their operations, optimize routes, handle scheduling, and integrate with existing air traffic systems. That’s where SurfOS comes into play. Also see – Why Archer Aviation Is Positioned To Become The Uber of Air Travel  But isn’t this simply another struggling airline trying to shift to software? Fair skepticism. Here’s why this could be different: the integration with Palantir. Palantir’s involvement isn’t superficial—their AI and data integration capabilities are genuinely top-notch. If SurfOS is truly “powered by Palantir,” we’re talking about bringing enterprise-grade AI into aviation operations. Moreover, the strategic transaction announced recently specifically aims at “accelerating development and commercialization” of SurfOS. This indicates management is aware of where the genuine value lies and is focusing on the software initiative rather than solely operating flights.  What does the path to 10x actually look like? SurfOS needs to become an essential piece of infrastructure. Here's the plan:  Phase 1 (1-2 years): Demonstrate that the platform works on Surf Air’s own network, showcasing operational efficiency improvements, cost savings, and safety enhancements.  Phase 2 (2-4 years): Establish 3-5 major partnerships with eVTOL manufacturers or regional carriers. The target is to become the go-to software solution as new aircraft come into operation. Early mover advantage is crucial here.  Phase 3 (4-6 years): Scale to dozens of operators as the advanced air mobility sector grows. Software revenue surpasses revenue from airline operations. Margins expand significantly.  What would the financials need to look like? Let’s reverse-engineer this. For a 10x valuation to be justified, you’d need the market to believe Surf Air could generate something like:  $150M+ in annual software revenue by 2030  70-80% gross margins on software (typically seen in B2B SaaS)  A recurring revenue model with high customer lifetime value  These factors would support a valuation in the $1.2-1.5B range based on software multiples (8-10x revenue for growth infrastructure software). Given that they are currently valued at around $150M, that indicates a potential 10x increase.  Is $150M in software revenue realistic? Surf Air’s revenue for the past twelve months was merely $107 million. However, here’s where it becomes intriguing: if SurfOS captures 10% of the software/platform segment within the advanced air mobility market, we could anticipate $150–$250 million in recurring revenue. The market is indeed substantial enough to sustain those figures.  What are the critical risk factors? Competition: What if Airbus, Boeing, or even current aviation software players develop competing platforms? They possess deeper financial resources and more industry connections.  Technology risk: &#34;AI-enabled&#34; and &#34;powered by Palantir&#34; are enticing phrases until proven otherwise. Does the software indeed provide measurable value? Additionally, check out our insights on – Palantir Stock Downside Case: $85?  Timing: The advanced air mobility market may develop more slowly than anticipated. Regulatory challenges, infrastructure development, and public acceptance—each could delay the projected timeline.  Capital requirements: Developing software and penetrating the market necessitate considerable investment. Does Surf Air possess the runway to achieve profitability before requiring dilutive financing?  Consider that investing in a single stock without thorough analysis can be precarious. Reflect on the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio , which has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a blend of the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to generate substantial returns for investors. Why is this the case? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided an adaptable way to take advantage of favorable market conditions while minimizing losses when markets turn downward, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics .  Bottom Line The market opportunity is genuine, the timing may be opportune, and the software-as-infrastructure approach is strategically sound.  Is it probable? Harder to determine. You are placing a bet on exceptional execution in both software development and market strategy, within an emerging sector that lacks a defined playbook. The connection to Palantir is intriguing but does not guarantee success.  The potential for a 10x return exists if Surf Air can successfully transform from being an airline that has software into a software company that comprehends aviation. This transition is challenging, but the recent strategic transaction suggests that management recognizes this opportunity. For investors with a high risk tolerance, this represents an asymmetric bet where you could lose 70% or more or achieve a 10x return.  Editorial Standards Reprints &amp; Permissions LOADING VIDEO PLAYER... FORBES’ FEATURED Video</div>

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<p>Surf Air Mobility's stock has declined due to net losses and shareholder dilution concerns. Despite this, some investors are optimistic about its long-term prospects, particularly its electrification and software initiatives. Surf Air aims to transform into a software infrastructure provider for aviation, with its SurfOS platform powered by Palantir's AI technology. This strategic shift could lead to significant upside potential if SurfOS becomes essential in the aviation sector. The company is focusing on software development to enhance operational efficiency and safety.</p>