Goldman Sachs buy-side research feedback: AI will still be the main theme in 2026, but the focus has shifted to TPU and high-end packaging and testing

As the market is hotly discussing the AI valuation bubble, Goldman Sachs' latest buy-side research report clearly points out that AI will remain the main theme of the market in 2026. According to feedback from over 35 investors surveyed by Goldman Sachs in Singapore, the investment logic of the Taiwan technology sector is showing a highly concentrated trend, with AI becoming the only direction that has gained consensus for funding, while non-AI sectors continue to cool down. At the same time, interest in the Google TPU supply chain and high-end testing and packaging fields has significantly increased, becoming the focus of a new round of layout. Goldman Sachs advises investors to closely align their investments with the AI main theme, focusing on high-certainty targets, but they should be wary of the risks of overvaluation in certain areas and actual demand falling short of expectations in the short term. AI Becomes the Only Clear Main Theme, Non-AI Sectors Ignored The survey shows that investors' attention in the Taiwan technology sector is highly concentrated in the AI field. The vast majority of respondents view AI as the only direction with clear growth prospects for 2026, while consumer electronics, industrial, and other non-AI terminal markets are generally considered "unclear," with related targets continuing to receive low attention. Notably, investor interest in the Google TPU supply chain is rapidly expanding, extending from core ecosystem companies to "secondary beneficiaries" such as testing and probe card companies, bringing new investment opportunities to related sub-sectors. Additionally, as the complexity of chip design continues to rise, the semiconductor testing segment is experiencing "structural dollar content growth," meaning that the testing costs for individual chips are significantly increasing, providing continuous structural growth opportunities for testing equipment and service providers, which constitutes a solid sub-investment logic under the AI trend. TPU Supply Chain in Demand, CoWoS Under Short-Term Pressure In the segmented sectors, market sentiment shows significant differentiation. On one hand, Google TPU supply chain-related targets are receiving key attention from investors. The Goldman Sachs report points out that semiconductor testing suppliers WinWay and MPI are expected to achieve valuation reassessment: WinWay will benefit from the incremental demand for new applications in AI ASIC SLT (system-level testing), while MPI plans to supply VPC probe cards to Google TPU in 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that the revenues of both companies will achieve year-on-year growth of 42% and 46% respectively in 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating. On the other hand, the CoWoS equipment sector (such as Heda Precision and Xinyun Co., Ltd.) is experiencing cautious sentiment in the short term. Investors mainly have two concerns: first, TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 may be lower than the current market's optimistic expectations, posing marginal pressure on equipment demand; second, the profit growth momentum in this sector appears slightly insufficient, with some funds shifting to areas with more elastic profit growth, such as memory. However, the Goldman Sachs report points out that the market may be overemphasizing short-term fluctuations, emphasizing that advanced packaging still has solid long-term structural demand. With the contribution of OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) increasing from 2027 and new technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) driving equipment upgrades, this sector is expected to welcome a new round of growth momentum