How Alarm.com’s (ALRM) Strong Q3 Results and AI Camera Launch Are Shaping Its Investment Story

• Alarm.com recently reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, raised its full-year SaaS and license revenue guidance, and announced the launch of the ADC-V730, its first Wi-Fi spotlight camera with AI-powered deterrence features.
• CEO Stephen Trundle’s purchase of US$1.25 million in company stock between November 18 and 20 further signaled strong leadership confidence, while the ADC-V730 expands Alarm.com's offering in advanced security solutions.
• We will explore how the AI-powered launch enhances Alarm.com’s competitive position and shapes the company's longer-term investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Alarm.com Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Alarm.com Holdings, you need confidence in the expansion of connected smart security and the continued rise of recurring SaaS revenue, particularly from the adoption of advanced, AI-integrated hardware. The recent launch of the ADC-V730 spotlight camera strengthens the company’s competitive edge in AI-driven security and could drive customer wins, but in the short term, it does not materially lessen the biggest risk: ongoing hardware supply chain and tariff-related cost pressures.

Among recent updates, the ADC-V730 launch is especially relevant, bringing sophisticated video analytics and deterrence features to Alarm.com's portfolio. This innovation aligns with the broader shift to cloud-based and AI-enabled security, which is considered a key business catalyst supporting recurring revenue and margin improvement.

However, investors should also be mindful that, despite these advancements, ongoing tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions remain a significant risk that...

Read the full narrative on Alarm.com Holdings (it's free!)

Alarm.com Holdings' narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $161.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and a $32.1 million earnings increase from $129.5 million.

Uncover how Alarm.com Holdings' forecasts yield a $68.71 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community members valued Alarm.com between US$68.71 and US$78.16 per share, highlighting wide-ranging expectations. At the same time, ongoing supply chain and tariff risks underline why future profitability could diverge sharply from these projections, explore the variety of community viewpoints for a fuller picture.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Alarm.com Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 56% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Alarm.com Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Alarm.com Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Alarm.com Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Alarm.com Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.