Churchill Downs (CHDN): Assessing Valuation After Recent Modest Share Price Gains

Churchill Downs (CHDN) shares have held steady in recent trading, prompting a closer look at how the company is performing. Over the past month, the stock is up roughly 5%, even as longer-term returns remain mixed.

See our latest analysis for Churchill Downs.

While Churchill Downs has seen a modest uptick this month, momentum is still lagging when you zoom out. The 1-year total shareholder return is down nearly 25%, which indicates that short-term share price gains have yet to reverse the tougher long-term trend.

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With the stock trading well below analyst targets and showing a sizeable discount to intrinsic value, is Churchill Downs an overlooked bargain for investors, or is the market rightly cautious about its future prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.7% Undervalued

With the latest close at $106.19, the narrative’s fair value estimate of $137.45 signals a significant upside, based on bullish assumptions about Churchill Downs’ strategic shifts. This forecast leans on long-term catalysts and forward-looking growth, setting up a compelling debate over the company’s real potential.

Renewed and expanded long-term media rights agreements (for example, the new seven-year NBC contract and first-time prime-time Kentucky Oaks broadcast) provide multi-year, inflation-hedged visibility on media revenue streams, while increasing the company's national reach, cultural relevance, and attractiveness to sponsors. These factors strengthen overall revenue resilience and free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s driving this premium valuation? One overlooked factor is a dramatic shift in revenue mix that could reshape the company’s growth path. Discover the surprising projections and debate over what’s really propelling Churchill Downs’ price target higher.

Result: Fair Value of $137.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained high investment costs and changing consumer preferences could undermine Churchill Downs’ growth story. This may introduce volatility to its long-term outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

Build Your Own Churchill Downs Narrative

If you think the story goes deeper or want fresh insights, you can easily dive into the data yourself and craft your own perspective in minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Churchill Downs research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.