The market digests interest rate cut expectations, European stocks open slightly higher, U.S. stock index futures decline, gold and silver rise together, and cryptocurrencies retreat

The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the optimistic sentiment released from the US-China leaders' call are gradually being priced in by the market, and the short-term upward momentum of risk assets has marginally weakened. On November 25, US stock index futures collectively fell, while most European stock indices rose, and Asian stocks followed the overnight rise of US stocks. US Treasury yields remained basically flat, and the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly above the 100 mark. Gold and silver both rose, crude oil fell, and cryptocurrencies retreated after a surge. Traders generally believe that the previous market adjustment is nearing its end, and risk appetite is gradually recovering. Currently, the market focus is shifting to the initial jobless claims data for November, which will be released on Wednesday. In the context of the absence of November non-farm payrolls, this data has become a key reference for the Federal Reserve to assess the economic fundamentals and calibrate its policy path. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, stated: “The previous valuation reset in the stock market resonates with the rising probability of a rate cut in December, which has not only become the core driving factor for the recent stock market rise but also propelled the market to initiate upward momentum for the year-end rally.” Core market trends are as follows: US stock futures collectively fell, with S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, Nasdaq 100 futures down over 0.2%, and Dow futures down 0.15% The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 0.2%, Germany's DAX index opened flat, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened flat, and France's CAC 40 index rose 0.25% The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.1%, at 48,659.52 points, Japan's Topix index closed down 0.2%, at 3,290.89 points, and South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 0.3%, at 3,857.78 points The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.036% The US dollar index fell 0.03%, at 100.15, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.18% against the US dollar, to 156.6 Spot gold rose 0.02% to $4,135 per ounce, spot silver rose 0.14% to $51.4 per ounce, and Brent crude oil fell over 0.5% to $58.52 per barrel Bitcoin fell over 0.6% to $87,692 per coin US stock index futures collectively fell, as the market displayed a game of "policy optimism and data uncertainty" during the gradual pricing process of rate cut expectations. Recently, several core officials of the Federal Reserve have intensively released dovish signals, continuously reinforcing the market's expectations for rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly publicly expressed support for a rate cut in December on Monday, and New York Fed President Williams also clearly stated last Friday that "a rate cut in the near term is possible," with multiple signals of policy easing significantly boosting market risk appetite. The current market focus has locked onto the December Federal Reserve meeting, but the economic data release delays caused by the US government shutdown have led investors to lack timely and effective fundamental references, relying only on lagging historical data, which further exacerbates the ambiguity in the market's judgment of economic fundamentals. James Egelhof, Chief US Economist at BNP Paribas, stated: "The interpretative discrepancies caused by data lag make it difficult for the market to accurately anchor the real economic situation, thereby amplifying short-term volatility risks." From the perspective of market pricing, the current implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has exceeded 70%. However, it should be noted that this probability has shown significant fluctuations in recent weeks due to intensified internal disagreements among policymakers and the lack of core economic data. The market's pricing of rate cut expectations has not yet fully stabilized. Boosted by the technology sector, Asian stock markets collectively rebounded following the overnight rise in U.S. stocks. The market holds an optimistic view on Google's new artificial intelligence model, and reports that the company plans to develop its own AI chips have further boosted investor confidence in the technology sector. Spot gold rose slightly to $4,135 per ounce.