<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="blog-content"><img height="334" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1601924994987-69e26d50dc26/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="500" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1601924994987-69e26d50dc26/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/>Image Source: Unsplash To date, 164 of the 192 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2025, representing 85% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 66% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 30% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.3%.The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies in this index is 5.3% for Q3 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 68% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and the remaining 31% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts. Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard(Click on image to enlarge)<img height="510" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Picture1-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Picture1-2.png"/>Source: LSEG I/B/E/S<h3> Retail sales</h3>September retail sales underperformed market expectations, with headline growth of 0.2% month-over-month, marking a pause after a strong run in prior months. The ex-autos category met forecasts at 0.3% m/m, but the biggest disappointment came from the retail control group, which unexpectedly contracted -0.1% m/m versus expectations for a 0.3% gain. August figures for ex-autos and control were revised slightly lower to 0.6% m/m.On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales rose 4.3%, while ex-autos advanced 4.1%.Category performance was mixed. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments and book stores posted the steepest decline at -2.5% m/m, followed by clothing and accessories at -0.7% m/m, down from +1.0% m/m in August’s back-to-school boost. Motor vehicles and parts dealers saw a modest contraction of -0.3% m/m. On the upside, miscellaneous store retailers surged 2.9% m/m, and gasoline stations climbed 2.0% m/m.<h3> This week in retail</h3>In Q3 2025, Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. reported 6.8% revenue growth of $1.29 billion, beating expectations on both earnings and same-store sales (SSS). This marks the teen retailer’s 12th consecutive quarter of growth, with overall comparable sales rising 3.0%. Growth was driven by Hollister, which surged 15% SSS, offsetting the -7.0% comp decline in the Abercrombie brand. Operating margin was 12%, pressured by tariffs and higher marketing spend. Still, management raised its full-year outlook, and are now expecting net sales growth of 6%-7% and EPS between $10.20 and $10.50, signaling confidence heading into the holiday season.Meanwhile, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported mixed Q3 results, missing earnings consensus estimates but beating on revenue. Core business comps rose 5.7%, supported by higher ticket and transaction volumes. Management raised full-year guidance for the core business, expecting 3.5%-4% comparable sales growth and EPS of $14.25-$14.55. The company is restructuring its Foot Locker segment, closing underperforming stores and clearing inventory, which will result in charges but aims to position for long-term growth.Kohl’s surprised to the upside in Q3, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.10, well above expectations for a $0.20 loss, and revenue of $3.41 billion, beating estimates despite a 2.85% year-over-year decline. Comparable sales fell 1.7%, but gross margin improved by 51 basis points to 39.6%, reflecting better inventory management and pricing discipline. Kohl’s raised its full-year EPS outlook to $1.25-$1.45, well above consensus of $0.71, while projecting net sales to decline 3.5%-4%. Shares surged more than 20% on strong results and guidance.Best Buy also exceeded expectations, reporting Q3 revenue of $9.67 billion, up from $9.45 billion last year, and adjusted EPS of $1.40, beating the $1.31 forecast. Comparable sales grew 2.7%, with U.S. comps up 2.4% and online sales up 3.5%, reversing last year’s declines. Management raised full-year guidance, now expecting revenue of $41.65-$41.95 billion and EPS of $6.25-$6.35. Shares rose about 3% premarket as investors welcomed the upbeat outlook heading into the holiday season.Here are the latest Q3 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates: Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2025(Click on image to enlarge)<img height="116" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Picture2-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Picture2-2.png"/>Source: LSEG I/B/E/S<hr/>More By This Author:Will Actively Managed Bond ETFs Drive Growth In The ETF Industry? S&amp;P 500 Earnings Dashboard 25Q3 - Friday, Nov. 21 Q3 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard - Update</div></div>

In Q3 2025, 66% of 164 reporting companies in the U.S. Retail/Restaurant Index beat EPS expectations, with a blended earnings growth estimate of 7.3%. Revenue growth is estimated at 5.3%, with 68% exceeding forecasts. Retail sales rose 4.3% year-over-year. Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s, and Best Buy reported mixed results, with some exceeding expectations and raising guidance. Abercrombie & Fitch saw 6.8% revenue growth, while Kohl’s and Best Buy raised their full-year outlooks. Dick’s Sporting Goods is restructuring its Foot Locker segment for long-term growth.

- As of now, 164 out of 192 companies in the Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2025 earnings, with 66% exceeding profit expectations and a blended earnings growth estimate of 7.3%.  
- Retail sales in September showed a modest growth of 0.2% month-over-month, with mixed category performances, while year-over-year sales rose 4.3%.  
- Notable Q3 performances include Abercrombie & Fitch's revenue growth of 6.8%, Kohl's surprising EPS of $0.10, and Best Buy's revenue increase to $9.67 billion, all indicating positive trends heading into the holiday season.

Q3 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update November 25