Two major factors alleviate concerns about the "AI bubble," gold and silver may rise again!

Investment Insights -

Two factors alleviate concerns about the AI bubble, and expectations for a Fed rate cut in December soar.

On Monday (November 24), Trump signed a new national plan called the "Genesis Project," aimed at transforming the way scientific research is conducted through artificial intelligence (AI) and accelerating scientific discoveries. This initiative seeks to better coordinate research efforts across government agencies and more effectively integrate AI tools to achieve more scientific breakthroughs.

Notably, Trump announced a comprehensive AI policy blueprint, the "American Artificial Intelligence Action Plan," back in July, aimed at making it easier for AI companies to develop in the United States and for American allies to access critical hardware and software. Additionally, the Trump administration is considering approving the export of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips to China, which also supports NVIDIA, a core leader in AI.

A series of policies further confirm the U.S. ALL in AI strategy, and the practical significance of this initiative undoubtedly endorses the unlimited flow of orders for current American tech giants. NVIDIA, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle—these tech giants have structured a closed-loop funding cycle where "money circulates on the books but never truly lands." This AI infrastructure boom driven by rapid debt expansion has raised market concerns about overall financial instability risks.

In terms of monetary policy, on Monday (November 24), Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a rate cut in December. Waller stated that tariffs have little impact on inflation and are a one-time effect. Most private sector data indicates a weak job market, and September employment data may be revised downward. Currently, the three Fed governors appointed by Trump—Bowman, Mulan, and Waller—are all expected to support a rate cut in December, and Williams' dovish stance last week suggests he will join the dovish camp, with Cook also leaning dovish.

This means that in the Fed's December rate decision, there may be five members leaning towards a rate cut and six leaning towards maintaining rates, with the key vote potentially depending on Fed Chair Powell. According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.9%, far higher than earlier estimates of less than 40%.

U.S. real interest rates are trending downward, and gold and silver may surge again!

The key to the current trend in precious metals lies in monetary policy expectations and the direction of real interest rates. As expectations for a Fed rate cut soar, silver rose 2.71% on Monday (November 24), holding steady at the $50 mark, while gold increased 1.73%, recovering to $4,100.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, once again approaching the 4% level. If subsequent data further proves that the impact of tariffs on inflation is a one-time effect, the Fed's focus will shift to the labor market, and declining U.S. real interest rates will support gold and silver.

More importantly, silver, as a unique metal with both monetary properties and industrial demand, often has a more complex price-driving logic than gold. However, with the continuous development of artificial intelligence, the vast computational resources required for AI development and usage rely on energy-intensive data centers, raising concerns that the adoption of this technology will exacerbate pressure on the U.S. power grid China's photovoltaic industry is promoting anti-involution. It is expected that the overall demand for silver will remain resilient, which is likely to become the core driving force for silver's subsequent rise.

In summary, gold and silver are expected to benefit from liquidity easing in the medium term, maintaining high levels or further reaching new highs. However, compared to gold, silver is expected to continue outperforming due to tight supply. Gold prices are more likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern.

Silver Technical Analysis: Holding steady at the $50 level, the market may once again challenge resistance above $56.0.

Silver Daily Chart:

Image source: tradingview

The daily chart shows that silver has maintained a good upward trend since early April and is currently holding above the $50 level, highlighting strong bullish sentiment in the market. If silver stabilizes at the $50 level, it is likely to further rebound and challenge the $54.0 or even $56.5 levels. The medium-term bullish-bearish dividing line for silver is at the $48.5 level