Joining hands with FAW to layout heavy trucks, CATL's second growth curve?

CATL is building a new business growth engine by deepening its layout in the commercial vehicle sector.

On the evening of November 27, FAW Jiefang announced that it would increase its investment in the joint venture, Jiefang Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., by 191 million yuan through its wholly-owned subsidiary. CATL and the newly introduced investor, Teladoc New Energy Co., Ltd., will also increase their investments simultaneously, with a total increase of 412 million yuan from the three parties.

Data shows that in September this year, FAW Jiefang became the only "double champion" in the domestic medium and heavy truck terminal market for the month, with traditional medium and heavy truck sales of 13,700 units and a market share of 25.7%, as well as new energy medium and heavy truck sales of 3,800 units and a market share of 17.6%. Recently, the company also released a new energy trunk transportation solution to further promote the scenario-based implementation of new energy technology.

Wallstreetcn mentioned that Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report released on the same day that the rapidly growing electric truck market will effectively offset the weakness in the passenger car market and become a core pillar of CATL's business growth in the coming years. The firm predicts that the electrification of trucks will help CATL achieve a 23% year-on-year growth in its electric vehicle battery business by 2026.

Transitioning from product competition to ecosystem competition, the deepening cooperation between CATL and FAW Jiefang, combined with analysts' strong expectations for this sector, indicates that the commercial vehicle market is moving from the margins to the center stage and may reshape the imagination of future growth for leading power battery companies.

Strategic Partnership Deepens: Building a "Vehicle-Power-Network" Ecological Closed Loop

This capital increase will reshape the equity structure and resource allocation of Jiefang Times.

After the transaction is completed, Jiefang Times' registered capital will be significantly increased from 90 million yuan to approximately 491 million yuan. In terms of equity structure, FAW Jiefang and CATL's shareholding ratios will be adjusted to 47.0270%, while the charging facility leader Teladoc will hold 5.9460% of the shares.

Jiefang Times was established in March 2023, with FAW Jiefang and CATL each holding 50% of the shares in the joint venture, focusing on the full lifecycle service of new energy commercial vehicles, with core businesses covering vehicle-power separation, battery swap station operation, green power trading, and other fields.

According to reports, since the start of cooperation with CATL, the company has laid a solid foundation for the scaled development of the new energy commercial vehicle market through continuous technological collaboration and business linkage.

The introduction of the charging facility leader Teladoc is an important strategic decision made by FAW Jiefang based on the development trend of the new energy commercial vehicle industry, and Teladoc's participation will further enhance Jiefang Times' service capabilities in the energy supplement terminal field FAW Jiefang emphasizes that this capital increase aims to integrate the advantages of complete vehicle manufacturing (FAW Jiefang), core battery technology (CATL), and charging networks (Telda), systematically constructing an ecological closed loop of "vehicle, electricity, and network" collaboration.

This move also marks a shift in competition within the new energy commercial vehicle sector, evolving from a single product dimension to a higher-level ecological system competition.

The momentum of heavy-duty electric vehicles is fierce, with a penetration rate nearing 30%

The electrification process in the commercial vehicle market is accelerating.

Morgan Stanley data shows that in October 2025, the sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in China increased by 144% year-on-year, with a penetration rate reaching approximately 29% that month, meaning that for every three heavy-duty trucks sold, one is electric. The firm predicts that the penetration rate of electric heavy-duty trucks will further increase to 35% in 2026.

As a leader in the domestic medium and heavy-duty truck market, FAW Jiefang became the only company in September this year to achieve the dual title of sales champion in both traditional medium and heavy-duty trucks and new energy medium and heavy-duty trucks for that month, with its market share in new energy medium and heavy-duty trucks reaching 17.6%, indicating that its transformation has begun to show results.

The electric light truck market is also demonstrating strong growth momentum.

In October 2025, the sales of electric light trucks increased by 40% year-on-year, with cumulative sales from the beginning of the year up 92% year-on-year. Although the penetration rate fell from the peak in August to 8.7% in October, Morgan Stanley expects the penetration rate of electric light trucks to grow from 10% in 2025 to 25% in 2026, reaching 38% in 2027.

Corresponding to the increase in penetration rate, the battery demand from electric light trucks will grow from 30 GWh in 2025 to 95 GWh in 2026, and further climb to 150 GWh by 2027.

Analysts believe this highly certain incremental market provides battery suppliers with opportunities for both volume and price increases.

CATL, the core beneficiary under the wave of commercial vehicles

The acceleration of electrification in commercial vehicles undoubtedly opens up new growth space for CATL, the world's largest power battery supplier.

According to reports, market analysts generally believe that the certain growth of truck electrification will effectively offset concerns about the slowdown in the growth of electric passenger vehicles next year.

Morgan Stanley clearly points out that with its leading position in technology and market share, CATL will fully benefit from the long-term trend of truck electrification. The firm predicts that the strong demand in the truck market will support CATL's electric vehicle battery business to achieve a 23% year-on-year growth in 2026.

Morgan Stanley maintains CATL's "overweight" rating and a target price of 490 RMB. Compared to the stock price at the time of the report's release, this implies that they believe the stock still has a potential upside of 31%.

For investors, the commercial vehicle market is becoming an indispensable part of assessing the future value of this battery giant