Morgan Stanley lowers POP MART's target price to 325 yuan, expects a shift from breakthrough growth to sustained growth next year (Correction)

Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that after nearly two years of exponential growth, POP MART (09992.HK) is expected to maintain its growth momentum next year, primarily driven by its strong brand influence and loyal fan base in China and the Asia-Pacific region. Strategic marketing, localized collaborations, and store openings in the U.S. market have equipped the company with the capability for long-term scalable development.

Morgan Stanley expects Labubu's sales to reach RMB 15.5 billion this year, a 41-fold increase compared to 2023, but estimates that the growth rate will slow down next year, mainly due to some consumer attrition. Given the lower advertising and promotion expense ratio, lower discount rates, higher proportion of online direct sales, and lower rental rates, Morgan Stanley believes that POP MART can maintain a net profit margin growth of about 30%.

Morgan Stanley has lowered the company's target price-to-earnings ratio from the previously estimated 32 times for 2026 to 26 times, reflecting the adverse situation of capital rotation in the global consumer sector and the market's focus on POP MART's short-term quarterly growth; the target price has been reduced from HKD 382 to HKD 325, with a rating of "Overweight."

Morgan Stanley also predicts that POP MART's total sales will reach RMB 48 billion next year, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with non-Labubu IP becoming the main driver.

(Correction: 2025-11-28 11:42:33 "Major Institutions" Morgan Stanley expects POP MART (09992.HK) to shift from breakthrough growth to sustained growth next year, making it the industry's preferred target.)