Dan Bin spoke today: I think there may only be two companies in China that can benchmark against Google

On November 28th, Dan Bin, Chairman of Dongfang Hongyuan, shared his investment insights at the Sina Analyst Conference with the theme "Do Not Waste a Great Era."

Dan Bin emphasized that the fundamental driving force behind human wealth growth is technological progress.

In the face of the artificial intelligence era that began in 2022, Dongfang Hongyuan made a simple strategic choice to concentrate funds on companies represented by NVIDIA.

He used the metaphor "Investing should be about hunting whales in the ocean, not digging for loaches in a muddy pond" to illustrate the importance of choosing the right direction for investment.

Regarding the current discussion on the AI bubble, Dan Bin believes that AI is just getting started.

He also specifically mentioned Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Alphabet, viewing it as an important recognition of the artificial intelligence era, and he expects Berkshire to continue increasing its stake in Alphabet as it did with Apple.

He speculated that if AI Agents can be realized, they may completely change business models.

In this competition of artificial intelligence, no company can afford to give up; everyone must go all out, and it is highly likely to be very intense.

Dan Bin further pointed out that AI competition may lead to more monopolistic business models,

and that Alphabet and NVIDIA are likely to "fly together," with both reaching a market value of $10 trillion;

and there are probably only 2 companies in China that can benchmark against Alphabet.

Finally, he expressed that although he is already of an older age, he is still full of expectations. He encouraged young people not to waste a great era, as this is a time that requires full effort and no regrets.

Do Not Waste, A Great Era

What I want to share with you today is that, from an investment perspective, do not waste a great era.

First, we see that we are currently in an intelligent revolution.

In the past few thousand years, this moment is similar to the era when Watt's steam engine began.

From my own investment research results, the true driving force behind human wealth growth, or the fundamental growth driver of human society, is technological progress.

We have just experienced the electronic hardware era, the internet era, and the mobile internet era.

Our company was established in 2004, and if we had realized that we were about to enter the mobile internet era, our investment decisions would have been much easier.

We should have converted all our money into Hong Kong dollars to buy Tencent; if we had held it for 21 years, the result would be about six to seven hundred times.

So what should we do today?

In 2022, we entered the artificial intelligence era.

Should we also convert all our money into US dollars to buy companies primarily represented by NVIDIA?

In the past two years, Dongfang Hongyuan has made such a simple strategic choice,

We believe that the same era has arrived, and we should reflect on what we should do when we were young and what we should do today.

In fact, investing is an industry of experience accumulation, and we hope to turn this experience into our valuable wealth.

Many people believe AI has a bubble, but I think it is just beginning.

In addition, many people currently believe that AI is in a bubble.

We can see that Tencent went public in 2004, which was actually in the middle or even at the end of the internet era, and Tencent has roughly achieved a return of six to seven hundred times.

Warren Buffett started investing in Apple in 2016,

and we see that even in the middle of the mobile internet era, there were still tenfold returns.

Now many people at this moment believe that AI is in a bubble, but I think it is just beginning.

Personally, I believe that to truly make big money, one must develop a habit,

to approach investments from an industrial perspective, spanning two to three decades.

Only then is it possible for our investments to yield relatively good results.

Additionally, as an investor, including when I was a researcher, "unity of knowledge and action" is actually the most difficult.

In my career, I personally believe that investing is a career where one should not leave regrets for oneself,

when we look back from being a researcher to an asset manager, to starting our own business, to this moment, and even throughout our future lives, we should not leave regrets for ourselves.

Dongfang Hongyuan has increased its holdings in Google this year, and Berkshire, Jinglin, and Duan Yongping are also increasing their positions.

This year, I actually made a directional choice.

For the past two years, NVIDIA has always been our largest holding,

but at the beginning of this year, many people believed that Google was negatively impacted by AI, so its valuation remained relatively low.

However, our research team found that

AI actually has a driving effect on Google's business and did not negatively impact it, so we added Google to our second-largest holding.

Recently, everyone has seen that prominent investors in the U.S., including old Deng, Warren Buffett's Berkshire, and Soros,

as well as several important investors in the U.S., like the well-known Duan Yongping in China and Jinglin, have all coincidentally increased their positions in Google.

And what am I particularly looking forward to?

I hope that Berkshire's investment in Google will continue to increase like it did with Apple.

I particularly look forward to mid to late January next year, when we can see if there are any changes in Berkshire's investment in Google.

If AI Agent can be realized, it will change a business model.

Recently, Google has risen a lot, but some companies represented by the Open AI industry chain have fallen a lot, indicating that the competition is very fierce.

Why?

Because, for example, we see Meta's glasses,

AI glasses, which I am very optimistic about, and Musk has also said that in the next five years, the form of mobile phones may disappear.

If AI Agent is realized,

for instance, if I want to book a flight from Shanghai to Shenzhen, in the past I would have to use my phone.

In the future, I might only need to use my glasses and say a word to book a ticket.

Or it could be glasses, earrings, a watch, or a brooch.

This Agent can help me achieve that; in this competition of artificial intelligence, no company can afford to give up and must go all out So we see that these companies in the US stock market, in the past year, like Amazon, have invested about $125 billion in R&D this year,

Google has invested $90 billion this year, and Microsoft along with OpenAI has jointly announced an investment of about $100 billion. This artificial intelligence revolution will be very intense.

Moreover, once successful, I feel that even the business model of Tencent's WeChat could undergo significant changes.

Google and NVIDIA are likely to reach a market value of $10 trillion

So, we see that this year, it’s somewhat coincidental that everyone is investing in Alibaba.

Domestically, I believe that Google’s TPU, including its Gemini and data,

the companies that can be compared domestically might be two: one is Alibaba, and the other is ByteDance; even Tencent might be a bit behind.

From the perspective of TPU and GPU, it might just be Alibaba,

So you can see that this quarter, many investors in the domestic market have added Alibaba to their portfolios.

I think the competition in AI is likely to be a competition for a more monopolistic business model.

In fact, the internet and mobile internet we have experienced have shown us that business models are becoming increasingly concentrated.

The realization of AI Agents may allow the world to be controlled by a few companies, and their market values will ultimately be astonishing.

So, two years ago, I said that NVIDIA's market value would likely exceed $10 trillion.

Today, it seems that not only NVIDIA will exceed $10 trillion, but Google and NVIDIA may soar together, both reaching $10 trillion.

This is an era that requires full commitment, leaving no regrets

We are experiencing a magnificent era, just like I felt during the internet age when I was young.

At that time, I once rallied a friend, saying let’s take $1 million to buy Sohu, Sina, and Netease, and welcome a great era.

Today, I have the same feeling; I am already at the age of old Deng, almost 60. But my heart is still young, full of expectations.

In fact, at our age, it might be the last opportunity.

In 20 years, we will all be 80.

But there may still be a few eras for those present, but for us, this is an era that requires full commitment and no regrets.

Liuli Investment Report

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users' specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk