The advancing DiDi: Expanding profits domestically, fierce food delivery in Brazil, Robotaxi to expand to 1,000 vehicles next year

Currently, DiDi seems to be playing out a typical business story of "cash cows nurturing star businesses": leveraging the strong cash-generating ability of its domestic operations to support high-growth potential businesses overseas (food delivery in Brazil) and future technological barriers (Robotaxi).

Domestic Fundamentals: Saying Goodbye to Price Wars, Technology-Driven Profit Margins "Naturally Growing"

The market's biggest concerns regarding DiDi's domestic business often focus on two points: first, whether industry competition will resurface, and second, whether profit margin improvements will come at the expense of drivers.

During a non-deal roadshow (NDR) on November 28, the Goldman Sachs team engaged with DiDi's management, who provided the following analysis to institutional investors:

First, the competitive landscape has entered a "steady state." In response to Gaode temporarily increasing subsidies during the National Day Golden Week, DiDi pointed out that this was merely a short-term tactical move by competitors to promote local life services. Data shows that subsidies quickly declined after the holiday, and the industry has not reignited a price war.

Second, the path to profit margin improvement exhibits "high-quality" characteristics. DiDi maintains its target of a 3.7% profit margin on domestic GTV (Gross Transaction Value) by 2025 and expects to further expand by about 50 basis points (bps) in 2026. Moreover, this expansion is not reliant on squeezing drivers but stems from the increased penetration of electric vehicles leading to a structural decrease in operating costs, as well as refined management of consumer incentives.

International Business: Brazilian Food Delivery as a "Key Battle"

If the domestic market is "stable," then Latin America is "offensive." DiDi is making a calculated gamble in the Brazilian food delivery market, with its core logic not being blind cash burning, but rather based on an "asymmetric advantage."

Currently, the ride-hailing business in Latin America (especially Brazil and Mexico) has entered a mature phase, achieving a GTV profit margin of 2% in some quarters, demonstrating self-sustaining capabilities.

At present, DiDi is focusing on the Brazilian food delivery market. Regarding this market, DiDi's management analyzed:

1. The market is large enough: The TAM (Total Addressable Market) for Brazilian food delivery is projected to reach $20 billion in 2024.

2. Unique advantages: Compared to local giant iFood, DiDi has a larger network of two-wheeled (motorcycle) delivery capacity, and its past high ROI investment records in ride-hailing (5-year cycle) and fintech (2-year cycle) demonstrate DiDi's execution capability.

3. Although the market may face a three-party competition, DiDi's current progress has exceeded management expectations, with plans to expand into more lower-tier cities next year.

Robotaxi: "Mass Production Imminent"

In the field of autonomous driving, DiDi is accelerating its transition from research and development to commercial implementation.

The company is currently operating fully driverless Robotaxis in Huangpu, Guangzhou, and Yizhuang, Beijing, and plans to expand its fleet to over 1,000 vehicles next year. More importantly, the new generation of Robotaxi models jointly developed with GAC Aion is about to enter mass production and will be officially launched next month.

In the long term, relying on the platform's vast accumulation of traffic data and network density advantages, DiDi is expected to remain at the forefront of the Robotaxi field Finally, at the capital market level, DiDi reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns. The company is executing a share repurchase program totaling $2 billion (valid until March 2027). Data shows that from August 25 to November 21 alone, the company has repurchased shares worth $23.2 million