November PMI seasonal rebound, export recovery is the highlight

National Bureau of Statistics released data on November 30: In November 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the economic climate. The Business Activity Index for the construction industry was 49.6% (previous value 49.1%); the Business Activity Index for the service industry was 49.5% (previous value 50.2%).

Core viewpoint: This month's manufacturing PMI index showed a seasonal rebound, with production and new orders indices both warming up, and the export index rising significantly. The supply-demand gap narrowed to 0.8 percentage points, indicating some stabilization in the economy. In particular, the unexpected rise in exports may suggest that external demand can still drive economic growth in the fourth quarter. However, risks remain, as the decline in finished product prices coupled with rising raw material prices continues to suppress corporate profits; the further decline in finished product inventory indicates that companies are still passively destocking, and a new round of inventory cycles is still brewing. By industry, the production, orders, prices, and inventory of non-ferrous metals have all shown significant upward trends. NVIDIA's financial report indicates that the global AI construction wave is still ongoing; the new order volume for non-metallic mineral products and metal products has improved significantly, possibly indicating that infrastructure investment gained momentum in November, combined with the construction industry's push to catch up on schedules at the end of the year, driving the index upward.

1. PMI index shows seasonal rebound in November, with export recovery as a highlight. The production index in November was 50% (previous value 49.7%), returning to the expansion zone. The new orders index was 49.2% (previous value 48.8%), and new export orders were 47.6% (previous value 45.9%). The PMI indices have all warmed up this month, with the return to normal physical workload in November being the main reason. In October, the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays generally affects the level of physical workload. Historically, the PMI in November tends to rebound. Our measurements show that the average month-on-month increase in the PMI index for November over the past 10 years is 0.21 percentage points, and the average rebound in the production index is 0.63 percentage points, overall aligning with seasonal trends. However, the rebound in the production index is below the historical average, which we believe is mainly due to instability on the demand side and companies' lingering doubts about future expectations, thus relatively suppressing production levels. On the demand side, although the new orders index has rebounded, it is still distant from the boom-bust line. The highlight this month is the export index rebounding by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, essentially returning to the central level of new export orders, suggesting that strong external demand may still support production intensity. High-frequency data shows that container throughput in November rose significantly, with the highest value recorded at 6.809 million TEUs, reaching the highest level this year. By industry index, export orders for textiles and apparel, non-metallic minerals, general equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals have all increased significantly.

2. Price index rises, with raw material prices continuing to expand. In November, the PMI factory price index and the raw material purchase price index rose by 0.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points to 48.2% and 53.6%, respectively. Raw material prices continue to expand, with significant increases in iron ore and copper prices in November, especially as LME copper prices rose to USD 11,004 per ton on November 28. By industry, the purchase prices of raw materials for non-ferrous metals increased by 14% On one hand, overseas copper mines have significantly reduced production, with the world's second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, halting operations since September due to a landslide; on the other hand, financial reports represented by NVIDIA indicate that AI demand remains very strong, with robust demand for chips, servers, and other infrastructure, enhancing the potential for non-ferrous metal prices on the demand side.

3. Inventory remains in a "tight balance," and companies are passively destocking again. In November, the finished goods inventory index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 47.3%, declining for two consecutive months. The raw materials inventory remained unchanged at 47.3%; the purchasing volume increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%. On one hand, companies have maintained a procurement level that fluctuates with new order levels, keeping inventory levels low, thus the increase in production this month has led to a passive replenishment situation for companies. On the other hand, the anti-involution efforts have prompted some industries to increase destocking efforts. By industry, the finished goods inventory index has significantly decreased in sectors such as non-metallic mineral products, chemical fiber rubber, metal products, and automobile manufacturing, all of which are relatively competitive industries.

4. The service industry is in the off-season, while the construction industry is sprinting towards year-end. In November, the large enterprise index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 49.3%, while the medium-sized and small enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points and 2 percentage points to 48.9% and 49.1%, respectively. In the non-manufacturing sector, the construction industry rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, with housing construction activities recovering and civil engineering activities maintaining growth, likely due to year-end rush work; the service industry index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a slowdown compared to last month, with consumer-related services exhibiting off-season characteristics under the high base effect of last month's golden holiday, as business activity indices in sectors such as shopping, accommodation and dining, transportation, tourism, and cultural and entertainment all declined to varying degrees compared to last month.

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