Only 23% HYPE dumped: Assessing Hyperliquid’s future post $9.5B token unlock

Hyperliquid $9.5 billion token unlock on the 29th of November, didn’t exert selling pressure as earlier anticipated.According to on-chain analyst Kirby Crypto, tracking the post-unlock distribution, only 23% (609K tokens) of the 1.75 million HYPE tokens were sold via OTC desks. He added,“Overall, there is far more hodling and re-staking over selling. If future unlocks are the same, unlock pressure would be far lower than expected.”Source: XAbout four of the wallets re-staked 234.6K HYPE (9% of unlock supply), and the team also restaked another 854K HYPE (33% of unlock) via Hyperlabs.Collectively, over 40% of the unlocked tokens were restaked, while the remaining 35% were held by the other team members.Mapping earlier HYPE selling fearsHyperliquid became an instant success after debuting in Q1 2023, as it was the first DEX that felt like a CEX, while remaining fully on-chain and transparent.The project had no venture capital (VC) backing, hence no infamous VC dump during the token generation event (TGE). As such, the HYPE token, which debuted in Q4 2024, surged from about $4 to a peak of $59 in 2025.However, Aster, Lighter, and other competitive DEXs emerged, threatening to erode its perpetual market share. Additionally, its monthly token unlock, starting with last week’s event, was viewed as bearish by top voices like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.In fact, Hayes estimated that the selling pressure from the unlocks, especially those linked to the team, would amount to about $12 billion over the next 24 months based on HYPE’s price at that time.This translated to a $500 million per month selling pressure that couldn’t be offset by the buyback program, according to Hayes.At $85 million per month, the buyback could only absorb 17% of the dump, forcing Hayes to sell most of his HYPE holdings and further soured the market sentiment. Indeed, the monthly buyback remained at nearly the rate he projected ($82 million for November).Source: TokenomistHYPE sparks whale interestHowever, the selling pressure of 609K HYPE (about $20 million) from the recent unlock meant a 96% lower than Hayes’ $500 million projection. In fact, the monthly buyback was 4x more than the unlock pressure.Notably, HYPE slipped slightly by 1.7% during the unlock on the 29th of November. It traded at $33.80 at press time, underscoring that the unlock was a non-event.Source: CryptoQuantBesides, there has been large whale activity at the recent lows, suggesting likely rising accumulation at current levels.Final ThoughtsHYPE experienced 96% lower selling pressure linked to unlock than projected by Hayes.There was a renewed whale interest at current levels, which could bolster HYPE’s recovery if the broader market sentiment improves.