Three years ago, ChatGPT was released, and the "AI frenzy" swept the globe, marking the beginning of a new era

On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT burst onto the scene. This initially low-key product launch ignited a global artificial intelligence revolution over the next three years, reshaping the technology and business worlds, profoundly changing the landscape of financial markets, and ushering investors and society into a new era filled with immense opportunities and high uncertainty.

Since the release of ChatGPT, the AI-driven rally has propelled the S&P 500 index up by 64%, with most of the gains contributed by a handful of tech giants. NVIDIA's stock price soared by 979% during this period, making it the most dazzling winner. The collective growth of seven tech giants—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Broadcom—accounted for nearly half of the benchmark index's increase.

In this fierce competition, there are no permanent winners. From the low-cost model of the Chinese startup DeepSeek shaking the global market to OpenAI's own GPT-5 release underperforming expectations, and Google's recent strong counterattack with Gemini 3, the technological moat seems to be disappearing.

The impact of this transformation extends far beyond the financial and technology sectors; it represents a profound structural reshaping of society.

While the AI boom has reversed the gloomy market sentiment of three years ago characterized by high inflation and high interest rates, it has also exacerbated the "K-shaped" economic divergence. In this world described by The Atlantic as "the world built by ChatGPT," investors and businesses, while enjoying the technological dividends, are also facing unprecedented uncertainty and a sense of career path disconnection, with the entire world waiting for another shoe to drop.

Turning the Tide: AI Saved a Sluggish Market

The emergence of ChatGPT coincided with one of the worst environments for global financial markets since the financial crisis. In the fall of 2022, inflation surged, and the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates with unprecedented force, while tech stocks, once the darlings of the post-pandemic market, found themselves at the eye of the storm.

According to a review of data from Yahoo Finance, on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 index fell to its lowest point during the post-pandemic sell-off, down 25% from its peak at the beginning of the year. By the time ChatGPT was released, the market had rebounded somewhat, but the outlook remained bleak. The future AI winners had dismal stock prices, with NVIDIA and Meta plummeting nearly 70% in 2022, Amazon's stock price halving, and Alphabet also dropping nearly 40%.

Against this backdrop, OpenAI released a product announcement consisting of just six sentences, introducing its model capable of conversation, acknowledging mistakes, and challenging incorrect premises. **This seemingly simple announcement unexpectedly provided a turning point for a market and economy mired in layoffs and high inflation. It not only sparked a new wave of technological prosperity but also became a key catalyst for reversing market sentiment, shifting investors' focus from the gloom of macroeconomic conditions to the bright prospects of technological innovation **

The release of ChatGPT has directly ignited a capital market AI frenzy, with investors pouring into related sectors with unprecedented enthusiasm, creating an astonishing asset appreciation feast.

NVIDIA, with its absolute advantage in the AI training chip field, has become the biggest beneficiary of this feast, with its stock price soaring an incredible 979% since the release of ChatGPT.

The AI boom has also boosted the valuations of other large tech companies. According to Bloomberg statistics, currently, the seven companies with the highest market capitalization in the S&P 500 Index—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Broadcom—are all closely related to the tech industry. The collective growth of these seven companies has contributed nearly half of the total increase of 64% in the index since the release of ChatGPT.

This concentrated growth has made the market increasingly "top-heavy." Since the S&P 500 Index is market-cap weighted, the weight of these seven companies has surged from about 20% three years ago to 35% now. This not only showcases the wealth creation power driven by AI but also raises concerns about concentration risk in the market.

Meanwhile, OpenAI's valuation has skyrocketed from $14 billion before its release to $500 billion today, placing it among the highest-valued companies globally.

Throne Rotation: An AI "Arms Race" Without Moats

While the capital market is booming, the competition within the AI industry presents a starkly different picture: an "arms race" without absolute winners and frequent changes in leadership.

At the beginning of 2025, OpenAI was the undisputed leader. However, by January, the model released by the Chinese startup DeepSeek achieved performance comparable to OpenAI at a very low cost, leading to a sharp drop in NVIDIA's stock price.

This summer, the highly anticipated GPT-5 model underperformed after its release, and the stunning debut of Google's Gemini 3 caused OpenAI to quickly shift to a defensive position.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman candidly told employees in November that the company must prepare for a "difficult atmosphere" and "temporary economic headwinds" following the release of Gemini.

However, Google's lead may also be short-lived. Meta's Llama open-source model has powered countless startups; Alibaba has just announced a significant upgrade to its Tongyi Qianwen (Qwen); and Anthropic's Claude model is on par with ChatGPT in programming capabilities.

As a leaked internal memo from Google in 2023 predicted, when technological breakthroughs can be replicated within months, any first-mover advantage is temporary: "We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI."

This memo today seems more like an accurate prophecy.

Bubble Warnings and an Uncertain Future

As the AI boom enters its fourth year, discussions about bubbles and uncertainties about the future are increasing, with the warnings coming precisely from the industry leaders at the center of the storm OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Chairman Bret Taylor both acknowledge that there may currently be a bubble. Taylor likens it to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, believing that while individual companies may fail, AI will ultimately create significant long-term value for the economy, much like the internet.

This uncertainty has also spread to broader societal levels.

Karen Hao, author of the book "AI Empire," believes that OpenAI's influence has "surpassed almost any nation-state in the world" and is "reshaping our geopolitics and the lives of everyone." However, this reshaping has also brought about widespread unease.

Charlie Warzel of The Atlantic notes that we are living in a world shaped by ChatGPT, characterized by "a particular kind of instability," and are "perpetually in a state of crisis."

Warzel states, "The younger generation feels this instability acutely as they are about to graduate and enter the workforce, yet are being told that their future career paths may be unclear. The older generation is also being told that the future may look entirely different, and the skills they have honed may no longer be applicable."

Three years later, the era initiated by ChatGPT continues to evolve rapidly, and its ultimate direction may still take more time to reveal