<div id="readability-page-1"><div><div><div>Key points:<ul><li>Silver has surged to 14 year highs and is now within striking distance of all-time highs. We check the latest trends for the precious metal and its big brother gold.</li><li>The Nasdaq Composite has staged a rally that some might view as “miraculous” given the precarious nature of it’s November lows. Can investors expect more, or is this just the calm before the storm resumes?</li><li>Bitcoin is one of the most talked about securities of 2025 – but for all the wrong reasons. While true believers assure us its recent plunge from over US$100k to the low US$80k’s is a massive buying opportunity, the charts suggest otherwise…</li></ul></div>In today's edition of ChartWatch Markets, we'll be covering the technicals for:<ul><li>Nasdaq Composite</li><li>Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX</li><li>Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX</li><li>Bitcoin vs US Dollar</li></ul>Nasdaq Composite IndexAnalysisOn our last update (on Thursday), I conceded that the Comp many have “sold me a dummy” with respect to its first three weeks of November selloff, culminating in that monster 20-Nov supply-side candle.As in, it’s been 5 up-sessions since, the last 4 logging credible demand-side showings in their candles.Chalk. Cheese. Night. Day. Yin. Yang.Hey, that’s markets! 🤷Anything’s within the spectrum of possible outcomes because literally anything is possible.We can’t tell the future – nobody can – and as trend followers we concede that… well it’s in the name: We must follow!Also, in that last update, I noted that given the trends, price action and candles were indicative of a more “balanced” demand-supply environment, I raised my max-full level for my Risk Bucket from 1/3 to 1/2.We have just the one extra candle (due to US markets being closed for Thanksgiving), and it’s consistent with the hypothesis of “newly found demand-side control”.The price is back above the short term trend ribbon (still neutral / amber), we have our “V-Shaped” rally that is consistent with a sustainable bounce, and the long term uptrend keeps chugging along wondering what all the fuss is about!To become even more confident the last pullback has run its course, I still require:<ul><li>The short term trend ribbon must begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (i.e., a trough – and importantly a higher trough to 21898– is set at or above the short term trend ribbon).</li><li>Continued demand-side candles (i.e., white-=bodied and or downward pointing shadows) – particularly one’s with a high session close near 23570.</li><li>Strong demand-side candles on elevated volume – indicating removal of latent supply in the system!</li></ul>On that last point, I continue to note that volumes – albeit holiday impacted – are scant, meaning:<ul><li>The market is prone to volatility in either direction (i.e., few buyers or sellers to get in the way of a motivated order)</li><li>We are yet to resolve the issue of latent supply (i.e., supply lurking in the system waiting to sell into higher prices). This requires the demand-side to trade with them = Elevated volume!</li></ul>So, we can see that whilst the present rally is constructive, there remains a few questions still to be answered as to whether the demand-side is sufficiently robust and motivated to drive prices to a new high – just as much as whether the supply-side is depleted enough in terms of size and motivation to let them.Hence, calling 50-50 on the risk scale seems to make plenty of sense. But what's “sense” when it comes to markets!!! 😉ViewQ. What's MOTN (More Often Than Not) from here? Up or down? 🤔We're all going to have an opinion, but mine is: I can't say right now. ⚖️Therefore, I remain comfortable at 1/2RP as my Risk Bucket 🪣 limit for now. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (i.e., Risk Position) for my investments in US stocks is 50%).Key levelsThe next critical zone of demand is 21898 – below it, the short term trend is unequivocally down and the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️ 23570-24020 is the nearest critical zone of supply – the Comp must at least close within this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is moving back into control of the Comp's price. Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEXAnalysisThe last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch Markets on 24-Nov.In that update, we noted after a pullback to the short term trend ribbon that it “deserves the benefit of the doubt for now”.Those keeping the faith in gold have been rewarded with a hold of the dynamic demand at the short term uptrend ribbon, and other push towards 4435.3 – if only nudging the 4287.3 point of supply in the meantime.In that last update, I also stated the basic conditions for any strong, record breaking trend:An emphatic showing by the demand-side to crush the growing participation of the supply-side – therefore convincing other holders of gold to Hold On for Further Upside &#34;HOFU&#34;, and to draw even more capital from the sidelines for Fear Of Missing Out &#34;FOMO&#34; – is required here to spark the next gold price rally. You’ll see what “emphatic” looks like in the chart below of silver, but for now on gold – that silver bullet in terms of the spark that reignites the rampant FOMO and HOFU seen in the gold market in the lead up to October’s peak is still lacking.Nonetheless, a very strong set of trends, price action and candles showing up here:(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ❌)<ul><li>Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬆️ / ⬆️, widening (getting stronger), the price is above both ribbons and both ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand = ✅✅</li><li>Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement) = ✅</li><li>Candles: Demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows) = ✅</li></ul>✅✅✅✅ = Demand-side control of short and long term gold priceViewBased on gold's trends, price action, and candles, my model allows for an add risk stance &#34;+R&#34; for those looking to increase their risk exposure to gold, or a maintain current risk stance &#34;=R&#34; for those comfortable with their present risk exposure.Key levelsThe short term uptrend ribbon (presently 4105-4150) is the closest zone of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of gold's price; below this, 4034.7 will likely serve as a critical go-no go zone for gold's short term uptrend (triggering my model to move to a reduce risk stance &#34;-R&#34;). 4287.3-4435.3 is the closest zone of supply.Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEXAnalysisThe last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch Markets on 24-Nov.In that update, the technical picture was looking a little precarious, and we concluded:A close below 48.71 will likely serve as a critical go-no go zone for the silver bull market (triggering my model to move to a reduce risk stance &#34;-R&#34;).vsA strong demand-side candle with a close above 52.91 is the minimum requirement for my model to move back to an add risk stance &#34;+R&#34;.(*Note the contracts for gold and silver have been rolled since our last update, the key technical levels are identical in terms of peaks and troughs etc. but due to the back-adjusting prices, their values have changed).It turns out that the “follow the long term trend” scenario has played out* = Scenario 2.(*MOTN – it generally does!!!)Indeed, I propose that we have seen the “emphatic move” discussed in the gold analysis above – i.e., the one that ignites the market back to FOMO and HOFU!As a result, previous supply at 54.43 and 55.08 dissolved – instead of latent supply, there was nothing but excess demand in this range – as evidenced by Friday’s long white candle with close very near the session high.Today’s candle, the last on the chart, is live – so discount it (hey – just before you do, note the growing upward pointing shadow into 59.02! 😉)With 55.08 dispensed with, there are only two remaining major points of historical supply potentially in silver’s way:<ul><li>25/04/2011 59.02</li><li>21/01/1980 67.31 (all-time high)</li></ul>It’s going to be a process of consuming the supply at 59.02 first. This may take a few candles (i.e., we’ll see only modest upward pointing shadows into 59.02 and or just a few modest black bodies), or it may take many (i.e., longer versions of the same).We just have to see what the market gives us.In the meantime, however, silver’s technicals are a clean sheet for demand-side control = I am happy to stay the course here.(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ❌)<ul><li>Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬆️ / ⬆️, widening (getting stronger), the price is above both ribbons and both ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand = ✅✅</li><li>Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement) = ✅</li><li>Candles: Demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows) = ✅</li></ul>✅✅✅✅ = Demand-side control of short and long term silver priceViewBased on silver's trends, price action, and candles, and as per the last update, my model allows for an add risk stance &#34;+R&#34; for those looking to increase their risk exposure to silver, or a maintain current risk stance &#34;=R&#34; for those comfortable with their present risk exposure.Key levelsThe short term uptrend ribbon (presently 50.85-52.05) is the closest zone of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of silver's price. 59.02 is the next point of supply, we should see at worst only modest supply-side candles there if the demand-side remains in strong control of the price (at best, strong demand-side candles). Beyond 59.02 lies silver's all-time high of 67.31.Bitcoin vs US DollarAnalysisThe last time we covered Bitcoin was in ChartWatch Markets on 18-Nov.In that update, we noted total supply-side control and total capitulation by the demand-side. Given I called “-R” (i.e., reduce risk and or short) on 4-Nov when Bitcoin’s price was over $106,600 – it was a welcome development. Today’s price action sees Bitcoin under pressure again, failing to close back above the previous demand zone of 91713-93450 – now seemingly confirmed as a new supply zone.Today’s candle is live, so I will stop short of drawing that conclusion just yet – but so far, its consistent with continued supply-side control of Bitcoin’s price.As is everything else I track, for that matter:(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ❌)<ul><li>Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬇️/↔️, short term expanding / getting stronger vs long term contracting / getting weaker, the price is below both ribbons and both ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply = ❌❌</li><li>Price action: Falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., demand removal and supply reinforcement) = ❌</li><li>Candles: Supply-side control (i.e., black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows) = ❌</li></ul>❌❌❌❌ = Supply-side control of short and long term Bitcoin price.ViewNo change from my stance since 4-Nov views = My model requires ZRP or -R.Key levels80619 is the closest zone of demand, on a close below here the next point of demand is 74441; It's likely that 91713-93450 and the short term trend ribbon (presently 92370-95900) will act as zones of dynamic supply.ChartWatch *LIVE* WebinarChartWatch *LIVE* Webinars – WEEKLY Wednesday's @ 12pm AEDTLearn more about technical analysis and trend following through real case studies on ASX stocks. 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GBTC

Silver has reached 14-year highs, nearing its all-time peak. The Nasdaq Composite shows a strong rally, while Bitcoin faces a downturn. Gold maintains its uptrend. Market analysis suggests a balanced demand-supply environment, with key levels identified for Nasdaq and gold. The risk position for US stocks is set at 50%, indicating cautious optimism amid market volatility.

Sublime silver notches 14-year high with 1980's all-time high within striking distance – ChartWatch Markets