The contraction of the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI reached the largest decline in four months, with further contraction in employment and rising prices

On December 1st, Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data showing that U.S. factory activity contracted in November at the fastest pace in four months, with new orders weakening, indicating that manufacturers are still struggling to escape a prolonged slump. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, below the expected 49 and down from the previous value of 48.7. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. This index has remained below the 50 threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector. For most of this year, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has stayed within a narrow range. In terms of important sub-indexes: The new orders index for November was 47.4, down from 49.4. Overall customer demand remains weak. Orders contracted at the fastest pace since July, and the backlog of uncompleted orders saw its largest decline in seven months. The employment index was 44, down from 46. The weak demand situation also explains the larger contraction in factory employment in November. The prices paid index was 58.5, expected 57.5, and previous value 58. The raw materials prices index rose for the first time after five months of decline, about 8 points higher than a year ago. The production index rebounded in November, expanding at the fastest pace in four months. Nevertheless, output performance has remained unstable throughout the year. Supplier delivery times for manufacturers' raw materials accelerated for the first time in four months. Inventories for manufacturers and customers continued to decrease, but the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month. Eleven manufacturing industries contracted in November, with declines led by apparel, wood and paper products, and textiles. Only four industries, including computers and electronics, reported growth, the fewest in a year. Analysis indicates that the ISM survey shows that the plight of U.S. manufacturing is still hampered by trade policy uncertainty and high production costs. After the ISM data was released, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell below 4.08%, narrowing its intraday gain to less than 7 basis points, having reached 4.0923% before the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. Earlier the same day, S&P Global released data showing that the final value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November was 52.2, expected 51.9, and initial value 51.9. Although the S&P Global PMI for November indicates further expansion in factory activity, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated: The deeper the analysis of the health of U.S. manufacturing, the more concerning it becomes. The main driver comes from strong growth in factory production, but the sharp slowdown in the inflow of new orders suggests a significant weakening in demand. For two consecutive months, the unsold inventory piled up in warehouses has reached the highest level since comparable data became available in 2007. This unplanned inventory buildup is often a precursor to production cuts in the coming months. Meanwhile, profit margins are under pressure from multiple factors, including poor sales performance, intense competition, and rising input costs (with rising input costs closely related to tariffs). The goods produced by manufacturers are increasing, but often there are no buyers. The combination of persistently strong production growth and sales performance below expectations has led to a sharp rise in unsold inventory, raising concerns