Lundin Mining breaks through the $50,000 mark, and after the export ban expires, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has not yet resumed exports

Cobalt prices broke through the psychological barrier of $50,000 on Monday, with the increase mainly driven by strict supply-side controls.

On Monday, cobalt futures on the London Metal Exchange rose by $1,465, closing at $50,035 per ton. Reports indicate that although the cobalt export ban has expired, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has not yet resumed exports.

The DRC accounts for about 70% of global cobalt production and suspended cobalt exports in February this year, when the price of this key electric vehicle battery metal fell to its lowest level in nine years.

Wall Street Insight previously mentioned that the DRC's mining regulatory agency ARECOMS announced that the cobalt export ban implemented in February this year will end on October 15, followed by a new quota system on October 16 to control supply after exports resume.

Last Wednesday, ARECOMS stated via email that although the export ban has been expired for nearly six weeks, mining companies are still waiting for permission to ship cobalt products to the border. ARECOMS stated:

The implementation of this measure will still take time, as government agencies must first ensure that ARECOMS is integrated into the export process and that the new procedures are operational.

The regulatory agency expects to complete the remaining steps required to resume exports in the short term. ARECOMS stated:

Once these adjustments are completed, an announcement will be made in the coming days.

Strict Quota System Replaces Export Ban

According to the plan announced by ARECOMS in September, the new quota system aims to strictly control supply.

The agency approved mining companies to export a maximum of 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, while the maximum for 2026 and 2027 is set at 96,600 tons per year. The allowable transport volume for the next two years is less than half of the country's 2024 production.

The world's largest cobalt miner, CMOC, received the largest export quota, followed by Glencore and Eurasian Resources Group. The state-owned enterprise Entreprise Generale du Cobalt, which holds a monopoly on the transport of artisanal cobalt products, received the fourth-largest quota.

Eurasian Resources Group stated in a statement to Bloomberg:

We are waiting for final clear instructions from the regulatory agency before resuming cobalt exports according to the quota system.

In addition to the quantities permitted for export in the next two years, an amount equivalent to 10% of the total quota has been reserved for ARECOMS. The regulatory agency previously stated that this "strategic quota" will be "entirely determined" by the regulatory agency itself.

Currently, while mining companies continue to export copper, they can only stockpile cobalt that is mined alongside it. These two metals are co-mined in the DRC.

Prices Strongly Rebound from Multi-Year Lows

The DRC's strong market intervention this year comes against the backdrop of a prolonged slump in cobalt prices.

When the export ban was implemented in February this year, cobalt prices fell below $10 per pound, according to Fastmarkets, a level not reached in 21 years except for a brief drop at the end of 2015 The surge in production is the main reason for the sharp drop in prices, especially as one mining company significantly increased output from its two large mines, while supplies from Indonesia are also on the rise. In response, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has taken decisive measures.

The country's president, Felix Tshisekedi, stated at a meeting that cobalt prices have rebounded by 92% since the export freeze in March.

He referred to the new quota system as the "real lever affecting this strategic market," aimed at breaking free from years of "predatory strategies," stabilizing prices, and enhancing the country's control over strategic resources