JP Morgan expects Macau's total gaming revenue in December to grow by over 15%, with Galaxy Entertainment as the long-term preferred choice
JP Morgan's research report pointed out that Macau's total gaming revenue in November increased by 14% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, recovering to 92% of pre-pandemic levels, marking the best recovery performance since the outbreak of the pandemic.
JP Morgan believes that the current forecast for December's gaming revenue growth is over 15%, but all signs indicate an upward risk; it also believes that even a growth of over 20% would not be surprising, which could likely lead to the best annual performance in 2025. If this is the case, the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 15% to 16% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% to 6%, making it the best-performing quarter in six years, significantly higher than JP Morgan and market consensus's year-on-year growth forecast of about 13%.
According to JP Morgan's stock strategy, the bank is optimistic about Sands China (01928.HK) in the short term (about 6 months) as it is expected to increase dividends in 2026 (late February) and is anticipated to gain market and profit share in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the long term (over 12 months), Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) remains its long-term favorite, as the bank believes that Galaxy has strong value and long-term growth potential, and the potential value of the fourth phase project (expected to open in 2027) may be reflected in the stock price sometime next year.
On the other hand, JP Morgan will continue to avoid Melco International Development (00200.HK) and Austar International Holdings (00880.HK). JP Morgan's investment priority order for Macau gaming stocks is: Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment (both tied) > Wynn Macau (01128.HK) and MGM China (02282.HK) (both tied) > Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US) > Austar > Melco International. For JP Morgan's ratings and target prices for Macau gaming stocks, please refer to another table
