Salesforce earnings: Can the software giant finally shake its AI 'curse'?

By Christine Ji To dispel the fear that AI is eating software, Salesforce will need to show increasing Agentforce adoption and monetization Analysts estimate Salesforce will report $10.3 billion in third-quarter revenue on Wednesday. Salesforce's artificial-intelligence strategy will be put to the test on Wednesday when the company reports fiscal third-quarter earnings. Could these results finally be a positive catalyst for Salesforce's stock, which has shed 29% so far this year? Shares of Salesforce (CRM), along with several other big software names, have been weighed down by fears that AI will make traditional software products obsolete. While Deutsche Bank's Brad Zelnick called out the "excessive negative sentiment" around the stock in a Monday note, the narrative has been tough to overcome. Last quarter, the company posted an earnings beat, but the stock still dropped as investors remained unconvinced of Salesforce's AI potential. BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski sees a turnaround on the horizon, writing Monday that Salesforce is "best positioned to reverse the SaaS narrative," referring to software-as-a-service companies. He believes that Salesforce is well on track to reaccelerate its subscription revenue into the double-digit range by fiscal-year 2027, thanks to increasing adoption of its Agentforce AI offering and Data 360 (formerly Data Cloud) service. Additionally, a proprietary BNP survey of software resellers showed a rebound in "spending intentions" for Salesforce specifically. Don't miss: They bet everything on Palantir and became millionaires. Inside the market's ultimate cult stock. Salesforce raised prices on its top-tier plans in August, a move Slowinski says should start helping revenue growth as the company charges more for AI services. Last quarter, subscription revenue growth was 9% in constant currency. The company shared at its October Dreamforce conference that AI could help grow overall revenues by over 10% annually to $60 billion by 2030. Read: Did Salesforce finally prove the bears wrong? The stock is rising off an upbeat AI forecast. Salesforce is expected to report $10.3 billion in revenue for the third quarter, according to FactSet analyst consensus estimates. Earnings per share is expected to come out to $2.86. Investors will also be keeping an eye out for current remaining performance obligations, or the company's near-term backlog, which FactSet estimates put at $29 billion for the quarter. Zelnick cautioned that Agentforce could see "limited commercial success" in the near future, as many customers are still experimenting with AI-agent use cases, "keeping initial deal sizes small (typically in the low six figures)." However, he also highlighted that Salesforce's price hike has been "well received" by customers. Additionally, Zelnick pointed out that customers have shown a "clear preference" for buying Salesforce's prebuilt agentic solutions instead of creating their own - a promising sign that customers aren't "vibe coding" their own applications and abandoning traditional software products. Zelnick maintained his buy rating and $340 price target on Salesforce shares, writing that there could be "substantial uplift potential for large enterprises committing fully to the platform." Slowinski maintained his outperform rating and $305 price target. "Salesforce remains our top pick in SaaS," he wrote. Read: What's dragging down Salesforce's stock? It may be a bigger problem than AI. -Christine Ji This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-02-25 1421ET