A trillion-yuan industry scale! The vast stars and sea of China's commercial space industry behind Zhuque No. 3

The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks an important advancement in China's development of large liquid oxygen-methane rockets and is a milestone event for the commercial space industry. Currently, driven by policy catalysts, accelerated technological breakthroughs, and sustained capital enthusiasm, China's commercial space industry is entering a rapid development phase.

Analysts point out that with breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the accelerated construction of satellite constellations, combined with policy catalysts and rising capital enthusiasm, a trillion-level industry track is rapidly taking shape, bringing unprecedented development opportunities for China's commercial space sector.

According to the 2025 China Commercial Space Forum forecast, by 2030, China's commercial space industry is expected to reach a scale of 7-10 trillion yuan. "In the future, our country will have the capabilities for on-orbit maintenance and construction of spacecraft, and space 4S shops, space hotels, and low-cost space tourism will no longer be dreams."

The Era of Reusable Rockets Begins, Zhuque-3 Fires the First Shot of Technological Breakthroughs

The maiden flight of Zhuque-3 marks the beginning of China's era of reusable rockets.

As a stainless steel rocket using liquid oxygen and methane as propellants, Zhuque-3 aims to achieve low cost, high capacity, and frequent launches.

According to data from Landspace, the rocket's launch thrust exceeds 750 tons, with a future goal of 20 reuses for the first stage, aiming to reduce launch costs to around 20,000 yuan per kilogram.

Although the first stage recovery did not achieve full success, the development team has verified the rationality of the testing, launching, and flight process plans.

Dongxing Securities stated that starting from the end of 2025, a batch of new commercial rocket models, including Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, Yingle-2, Hyperbola-3, and Zhishenxing-1, will be launched as planned. If this batch of reusable rockets achieves recovery, it is expected to accelerate the domestic low-orbit satellite constellation networking.

The core value of reusable technology lies in significantly reducing launch costs and shortening mission cycles. SpaceX has reduced the cost of a single launch by more than 70% through the recovery and reuse of boosters, controlling the Falcon 9 launch cost to about $3,000 per kilogram, while Zhuque-3's target is 20,000 yuan per kilogram, placing both in the same range.

More importantly, the strategic value brought by high-frequency launch capabilities. Traditional rockets often take months or even years to be reused, while the Falcon 9 booster can be reused in just 21 days. This multiple launch frequency advantage not only allows for faster satellite constellation deployment but also transforms space launches from "occasional showcases" to "everyday occurrences."

Intense Competition for Orbital Resources, China's Constellation Races to Catch Up

In addition to technological breakthroughs, China's satellite constellation construction is accelerating comprehensively.

Dongxing Securities stated that the near-Earth orbit can accommodate about 60,000 satellites, and the Ku and Ka communication frequency resources primarily used by low-orbit satellites are gradually becoming saturated.

According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) regulations, satellite orbits and communication frequency resources follow the "first come, first served" principle. Companies must launch their first satellite within seven years of obtaining permission and complete the launch of 10%/50%/100% of the total number of declared satellites within 9/12/14 years

In this "land-grabbing movement," Starlink has launched over 10,000 satellites, with more than 8 million subscribers and an average network download speed of 210 Mbps.

China currently has three major satellite constellation plans: China Star Network's GW constellation (12,992 satellites), Shanghai Yuanxin's G60 Qianfan constellation (15,000 satellites), and Landspace's Honghu-3 constellation (12,000 satellites).

As of October 2025, China Star Network has launched a total of 116 satellites (including experimental and operational satellites), while Qianfan has launched a total of 108 networking satellites. Although there is still a gap compared to Starlink, the launch frequency is becoming "routine."

According to Soochow Securities, the core industrial chain currently being contested includes:

• Upstream manufacturing segment: Satellite platforms, satellite payloads, rocket manufacturing, etc., where satellite manufacturing is evolving towards modular design, automated testing, and mass assembly, with production capacity expected to be significantly released.
• Midstream launch segment: Rocket launch services are evolving towards reusability, low cost, and high capacity, moving from the verification stage to engineering application and large-scale development. The revolutionary significance of reusable rockets lies in significantly reducing launch costs and shortening mission cycles, greatly enhancing capacity supply.
• Downstream application segment: Satellite operation and services, including satellite mobile communication services, broadband broadcasting services, and ground equipment manufacturing, where the ground equipment manufacturing industry accounts for 53% of global satellite industry revenue.

Policy dividends released, establishment of Commercial Space Administration leads industry upgrade

In response to the growing market demand, the top-level design at the regulatory level is being improved.

The National Space Administration recently established the Commercial Space Administration and released the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)," clearly incorporating commercial space into the overall layout of national space development According to Dongfang Securities analysis, the establishment of the Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration signifies that China's commercial space sector has entered an important stage of institutionalization, strategization, and systematization.

The newly released "Plan" sets clear goals: by 2027, the scale of the commercial space industry will significantly expand, achieving high-quality development. To implement this goal, policies provide support from the following dimensions:

Rocket Sector: Focus on supporting the construction of low-cost, high-reliability, fast-response, and reusable commercial launch vehicles, and coordinate the planning of commercial launch sites and offshore launch systems.

Satellite Sector: Improve the management system for the entire lifecycle of commercial satellites and explore the establishment of a trustworthy platform for satellite data sharing and transaction mechanisms.

Funding Sector: Guide the cultivation of patient capital, encourage the establishment of a national commercial space development fund, and guide financial institutions and social capital to make long-term strategic investments.

Dongwu Securities pointed out that by 2025, the frequency of satellite launches in China will significantly increase, and the accelerated progress of satellite networking will bring enormous market space to the upstream and downstream industrial chains. With the advancement of private rocket research and development, several new models are planned to debut by the end of the year, marking a turning point in the industry's development.

The industrial chain is ushering in a singular moment, and the trillion-yuan market is opening

With the triple resonance of policies, technology, and capital, China's commercial space industrial chain is welcoming systematic opportunities. This vast market encompasses a complete chain from upstream manufacturing, midstream launching, to downstream applications and operations.

Soochow Securities' research report predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry will show a clear evolutionary trend:

Satellite Manufacturing: Moving towards modular design, automated testing, and mass assembly, with production capacity expected to be concentrated and released. For example, after the completion of the satellite super factory in Wenchang, Hainan, the annual production capacity could reach 1,000 satellites.

Rocket Launching: Transitioning from technology verification to engineering applications and scaled development, evolving towards repeatable, low-cost, and high-capacity solutions.

This historic opportunity is attracting deep layouts from numerous enterprises along the industrial chain and has become the focus of the capital market. From the launch attempts of the Zhuque-3 to the grand blueprint of national strategy, China's commercial space "starry sea" journey has already begun