"Bad data" is "good news"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%
Overnight, the U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed service sector ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP). This has boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December almost certain, while the possibility of a rate cut in January has risen to over 30%
Overnight U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed services ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP).
This boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December a "done deal," while the likelihood of a rate cut in January rose to over 30%.
