HSBC Research lowers Li Auto's target price to $18.6, rating downgraded to "Hold"

HSBC Research published a report indicating that Li Auto (LI.US) is experiencing extremely difficult times. The company recorded a net loss in the third quarter of this year, primarily due to vehicles under the company's brand catching fire while in operation at the end of October, leading to a recall cost of 1.1 billion RMB. The delivery of the new i6 model was affected by battery supply constraints, and due to intense competition, the sales contraction of the EREV L series was also faster than expected.

HSBC Research stated that due to Li Auto's suboptimal product mix, it is expected that the company's automotive gross margin will decline quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, and it estimates that the fourth quarter will be close to breakeven. As for the outlook for next year, the bank believes that the short-term headwinds have largely been reflected in the stock price, but visibility for next year remains limited. Due to fierce competition, the bank has lowered the company's earnings forecast for this year to 921 million RMB and reduced the earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 38% and 31%, respectively. Therefore, it has downgraded Li Auto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," with the U.S. stock target price reduced from $30.3 to $18.6, while the Hong Kong stock target price for Li Auto (02015.HK) has been lowered from HKD 118 to HKD 83